Well that's a much more thorough analysis than my thinking was...

Haha. I do enjoy running through various scenarios like this.

Any "Let's go Brandon" cheers?

Beat NAU, and work on the OLine, QBs, return team / mental mistakes. Roll out some new trick plays to keep EWU & Sac busy.

I think the Big Sky gets 4 teams in the 24 team field (like 2019). 5? Possible with the conference record v FBS, but doubt it. So, there’s 5 teams that are likely in the mix. Sac is in - they’ll have at worst 1 conference loss. EWU and MSU sit pretty good, especially the one that wins that matchup. Really need Montana to lose to MSU (SUU blocked FG? Seriously?). If we end tied with them, especially with 3 losses, they’ll get the nod.

Depending on scenarios, I think there could be 4 2-loss teams and one will not make it. That ISU turf fest might haunt us.

Question for anyone:. If Northern Arizona wins out adding Davis and Montana to Arizona as quality wins, would they make the playoffs with a 7-4 record? I’m thinking they will view our game as a must win playoff type game.

As I recall, N. Iowa was 7-4 we played them in the playoffs. BTW, they’re 5-3 now and have had a tough schedule. I could easily see them get in again at 7-4. Very well coached team.

and that was with the previous format with 20 teams. If NAU did run the table they’d probably be a top four finisher (unless we’d follow with 2 wins). They’d probably get in

EWU #7
Montana State #8
Montana #11
South Dakota #12
UC Davis #14
Sac St #16
Weber St #17

https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

What's the South Dakota reference here?

This year is back to a 24 team playoff format. Last year being 16 teams was just for the weird spring season.

Depending on the results of course, but I think 5 teams is realistic. 6 is probably unlikely, though possible (the CAA got 6 teams in 2018 including a 6-4 Elon team and three 7-4 teams). Missouri Valley had 5 teams in 2014, 2015, 2017. Right now we've got (by the STATS poll):

No. 6 Montana St 7-1 (@ EWU, vs Ida, @ Mont)
No. 7 EWU 7-1 (vs MSU, @UCD, @PSU)
No. 9 UCD 7-1 (@ NAU, vs EWU, vs Sac)
No. 11 Montana 6-2 (@ NCU, @ NAU, vs MSU)
No. 15 Sac 6-2 (vs CP, vs PSU, @ UCD)
No. 23 Weber 4-4 (vs. PSU, @SUU, @NCU)

The only upset by one of the other 7 teams this year against one of the 6 ranked teams was Idaho St beating us. Put another way, the 6 ranked teams are a combined 24-6 in the league this year. Take out the H2H games and they're a combined 19-1. So let's assume that continues since there appears to be a clear divide between the top 6 and the bottom 7. That means without any upsets the worst case scenario for each team would be 8-3 MSU, 8-3 EWU, 8-3 UCD, 8-3 Montana, 8-3 Sac, 7-4 Weber. Obviously all the teams couldn't end up at that record since someone has to win each H2H game and there certainly could be an upset or two.

Since the bracket expanded to 24 teams in 2013, every single team that had 3 or fewer losses from the Big Sky, CAA and MVFC has made the playoffs. Some 7-4 teams have missed it but 8-3 = playoffs. So what I'm saying is there's probably going to need to be some upsets for only 4 Big Sky teams to make it.

thanks for the correction. For some reason, I was thinking the expansion to 24 was in 2019. Maybe they were talking about a change and that got stuck in my brain.

Watched some of the Monmouth - NC A&T game via replay. Official crowd of 20,500 and it looked packed (Homecoming in Greensboro). I think Monmouth will be Big South champs. Their QB Muskett is very good and I think they will beat Kennesaw State who squeaked by Gardner -Webb and are always overrated IMO.