I don’t think you can make good decisions without considering both teams. You could have a simulation which has all the performance perameters of each team and then match them up. So if your plays that gain a lot of yardage correspond to their plays that they can’t defend well you run those plays. The problem with those simulations is they a built from season statistics so once you get enough data, it’s outdated.

First time in the playoffs: Davidson and VMI

I think Weber is going to have a tough time with Southern Illinois. They have a strong running game. The flip side is that they gave up a bunch of points to SE La. but SE La. has a much more potent offense than Weber.

Eastern will have to limit the big 240 lb. steamroller of a running back NDSU has. However, this year NDSU does not have a breakaway running back and their pass attack is inconsistent. SDSU throttled NDSUs run game, something that UND could not do. Barriere needs a big game and being on the road will be another obstacle for them.

My thought is that Eastern has a better chance of advancing than Weber (probably not the prevailing wisdom). I also think Sam Houston Institute of Technology will have their hands full with Monmouth (again probably against prevailing thought). Other games will go sort of pro forma I think.

I will also say that there is no way Missouri State should be in. That is simply MVFC bias. They will have the advantage of having played more recently - UND hasn’t played in a month.

Can't help but be intrigued by that OPENING round playoff game EWU @ NDSU...are these the best 1st Rd pairings they could come up with? Holy Cross played 3 games...playoffs? More programs must have opted out of the playoffs than I thought.

I think, at least in the case of EWU, if you were not an autobid, and not top 4 you are at the mercy of the committee. So Sacred Heart and Holy Cross are in although there are several better teams. They will get torched in the first round especially HC unless coach Stig. Invokes the mercy rule. Normally there would be many more non auto -qualifiers that are “worthy”. But, in any event, the best teams are in the mix and whoever wins will be deserving of the crown (with no asterisk).

FCS facebook group seems to think EWU @ NDSU was more due to Fargo being selected as a site for several games than due to any particular seeding considerations

Monmouth 0 @ Sam Houston State 14, LIVE (ESPN 3)
VMI @ James Madison, 11 am PT (ESPN3)
Davidson @ Jacksonville State, 11:00 am PT (ESPN3)
Holy Cross @ South Dakota State, 12 pm PT (ESPN3)
Eastern Washington @ North Dakota State, 12:30 pm PT (ESPN3)
Southern Illinois @ Weber State, 1 pm PT (ESPN3)
Missouri State @ North Dakota, 1 pm PT (ESPN3)
Sacred Heart @ Delaware, 4:00 pm PT (ESPN3)

i think some of the selections were driven by schools that put in bids to host. I know we came out and said we had no interest in hosting (this was prior to the EWU game).

Sam Houston (Institute of Technology) escapes with win 21-16. Had stopped watching game as Sam was up 21-0 in third quarter. Monmouth QB intercepted on 4 th down in end zone to end game.

EWU up 7-0 after first drive and stops NDSU - second drive starting near midfield. NDSU is definitely not the team of last year and I think EWU has a good chance to take this game. I have mixed emotions - pull for big sky or a dose of freudenschäde on Best.

14-0 EWU. ESPN3.

NDSU just scored: 14-7 EWU at the end of the 1st quarter

Weber and Southern Illinois just underway on ESPN3.

NDSU can’t stop Barriere and Co. 20-7. Missed extra point.

Weber up 7-0 with 7:25 to go in the 1st.

Barriere is so calm, athletic and elusive that he reminds me of Patrick Mahomes. Barriere is the best player in the Big Sky and maybe in the FCS.

agreed.

But EWU defense that has been porous for most of the year is keeping NDSU in game 20-14.

Weber scores again and leads 14-0 with 5:52 to go in the 1st.

SIU missing their stud #15 who scored a bunch last week.

Did you see that pass!!!! I though he was throwing it away.

NDSU blowing EWU off the line. EWU looks like they will have to score every possession to win.

The Bison have EWU's defense on their heels. 21-20 NDSU.

NDSU's offensive line is pulverizing EWU. 28-20 Bison.

After EWU took an early 14-0 lead, it's been all Bison and now the game is turning into a blowout. NDSU is up 42-20 with 8 minutes to go in the game.