Don't look now but CSU Fullerton just beat UCLA 77-74 in regulation. They came into the game 3-10. UCSB is 9-4, Hawaii is 8-5 as is UCR. Hawaii has wins over Pacific and San Francisco, as well as giving Washington (#21) a tough game. Maybe this is the year that the Big West gets more than one team in the NCAA tourney? Doubtful. Do the Ags have a shot at any post-season berths? Doubtful. I'd like to think that they will manage to finish in the middle of the pack, but we'll soon see as conference play starts in less than two weeks. Based on what I've read, I'd say that UC Davis will finish 6th.
Stephen Tsai, the Honolulu paper's chief sportswriter covering the Big West had a nice sketch of the upcoming conference play. His predictions are much more realistic than pre-season polls since it is based on the teams' records so far. He picks the Aggies to finish 5th and Hawaii 3rd. He does state, quite rightly I think, that there is a lot of parity in the conference this year, so... I wish I could post the article here, but I have to get past all the current obstacles they put on newspaper websites these days. Here is his overall ranking:
1. UCSB
2. UCR
3. Hawaii
4. UCI
5. UC Davis
6. CSU Fullerton
7. CSUN
8. Long Beach
9. Cal Poly
That's a pretty good guess. I'm estimating we finish 9-7 in conference play (6-2 at home and 3-5 on the road) which will put us about 4th (somewhere between 3rd and 5th). There's still lots of "ifs" in the league: how will CSUN play now that Diane is back? Will UH be able to win on the road? Will UCR be the team that beat Nebraska and Fresno or the one that lost at home to NAU and got clobbered by 50 at Air Force. Questions start to get answered this week.