I sometimes wonder about the reliability of team stats where one unit looks terrific and the other bad. If the offense can’t score I think the opposing team plays more conservatively leading the defense stats to look better. But I think Cal will regress toward the mean (mediocrity) on offense; in other words get better. The new UCLA QB transfer is probably better than what they had. Their defense will remain good against passing teams. They are going to be a tough matchup for us.

We have a better chance than Stanford, strength against strength. Opening game. Our coaching staff gives us a legit chance. Bears apparently have 3 guys battling for QB, new skill players everywhere. A perfect opportunity for Coach Tucker.

Aggie Band?

Cal lost their big play RB Laird and their top 3 WR's (Noa due to transfer, which could be telling about their offense or QB situation). I think this will be a big blow to their already awful offense. The QB's in contention all come back, but none of them were that good last year (or the year before that). They have Modster transferring over from UCLA. Although he is new to the program, I would not be surprised if he ends up becoming the starter because the others were just not very good.

Cal's defense will be strong again. Their secondary and linebackers will be solid. Plus, they add a new stud LB in Deng. Their DL is competent, but not great. I remember Cal's defense scoring a lot last year. I don't see that going away this year. I think Cal's biggest scoring threat will be their defense.

We need to avoid turnovers and not allow any big offensive plays by Cal. I don't think Cal will have a lot of long sustained drives, but they have a lot of speed which means the potential for a big play will always be there.

Since this is the first game of the season, it is hard to know just how good (or bad) Cal will be. I think we have a fighting chance.

Looks like their #1 QB has a little mobility. Cal Spring game.

https://youtu.be/UTcyzj_ER5A

Tough game.

Maier will have to shine to have a chance.

Our OLine and 2 solid RBs are key. Teams have run on them, and they lost a couple of guys on the line... And I really liked Tehran Thomas at 235 pounds ... a beast.

Last Bear spring practice. On a different clip, the HC was saying some of his defensive players had to work on leverage issues?

https://youtu.be/1Hup9_jDOL8

https://twitter.com/CalFootball/status/1146172229018894336?s=20

Pac 12 workouts ok now?

May be directed by players and/or strength staff but not football staff. Cal's D is rugged. Could be the best back seven in the west. Big test for Davis on offense and will likely require the staff to scheme yardage rather than relying on 1-1 victories. Cal is putrid on offense and the incumbent QB (Garbers) will beat out the UCLA transfer (Modster) for the starting job, but they still have Pac-12 athletes and will be a big challenge for an undersized Davis front that lacks a pass rush.

i was talking to a coach last spring who was breaking down Cal defensive tape. He was VERY impressed with their talent AND coaching. they hide their schemes well, and don't tip off what they are doing with personnel changes. big challange

We had a few shots with Stanford last year, a much better team, but couldn't capitalize. Hopefully we've matured, added depth ... but we lost Doss. I believe he was the only player who excelled in offensive production. Rodriques was 6 of 8 versus subs. We had 50 net yards rushing. Is our offensive line better?

Soph DE DeAndre Morgan, who sat a year I believe due to injury, is up to 280 pounds. Size we need! (235# out of high school.)

I am far from an expert on such matters but I remember reading somewhere that the basic strategy for an FBS team to win versus a FCS team, no matter the skill Level is of the FCS team, is to wear them down with your depth. In the fourth quarter try and get the FCS team so worn down that the win is an easy one, as they usually are. So for the Aggies, they better be in tip top shape against Cal or its going to be a long, long day in the Bay for our Ags. No doubt our coaches are very aware of this.

Very different animal. The Stanford game was an 11am kick and the Cardinal had nothing to prove and operated under a handshake agreement with Shaw to run the clock. Cal has an unproven offense with a chip on its shoulder and a D that will be out for blood. Cal is at UW week 2.

N. I really don't have a clue as to what you are talking about. Please elaborate for all of us.

Stanford last year wanted a bigger score differential than they came away with, I think their post game comments showed that. We exceeded expectations especially with our defense. But we were lucky to get the one touchdown we got.

If we're playing the what-if game the score could easily been a little more favorable to the Ags too. We missed a FG and had a TD called back if I remember right.

I'm happy to walk away from that as a game where we stayed competitive for a half or more and didn't let it run away until maybe the very end.

That's one aspect. There are often problems on the line due to size and athleticism, so that can limit the offense. (North Dakota exception.) The field seems smaller (on O). On defense, the FCS team can face 6'3", 6'4" athletic receivers vs 5'10" DBs. Then there are players like McCaffrey who can make highlight plays.

I was impressed with our play at Stanford, as were Cardinal fans. The offense seemed limited, having to keep a FB home. I don't think we did that w / the Spartans.

Just curious, are we going to be giving Cal fans our personal scouting breakdown?

I know the coaches have film, I know they're smart, I know we're overmatched ... but they likely won't see all our tape, all our players, players returning from injury ...

We play even on the lines, restrict turnovers, score early ... who knows.

I'm sure that Cal will have plenty of tape on us. It's a major FBS program that's trying to build back up. They won't take the game against Davis lightly.

For what it's worth, game film from the 2018 Cal vs. Washington game at Strawberry Canyon

Wasn't it Weber a few years ago that gave Cal everything they could handle? As i recall, Cal had to come back from being down.

Cal scored 16 in the 4th to go ahead and then pull away...

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400935268

https://bearinsider.com/s/1490/a-slightly-too-early-opponent-preview-uc-davis-aggies

Pretty fair write up.

Cal feeling really, really solid about their secondary.

Agree. We could be in for a long afternoon if Cal's defense, and especially their secondary, slams the door on the Aggie offense. We have to be able to score and get a few breaks to stay within striking distance. We'll need to capitalize on any scoring opportunities we get. Cal will have a big size, speed and depth advantage so there's no margin for missed opportunities. That said, Hawk will have the Ags as ready as is physically and mentally possible.

I’m surprised about the assumption that Chase Garbers is going to be their QB. I think that guys who've got as much of a shot at the job as he had with his results have proved they are unlikely to be better than mediocre. If I was a Cal fan I’d be hoping to see the UCLA transfer. He’s done ok with his limited opportunities with the Bruins.

Their D looks tough. We had 2 or 3 opportunities with the Cardinal and came up with a FG. Only Doss was unstoppable, and if I recall correctly, we kept a FB home to protect Maier. What a challenge for our O line!

Reasonable article. Give Jake time and he is going to do well. As is often the case, the game will be won and lost in the trenches unless Jake becomes more mobile. In contrast to our previous coaching staff, Hawk has his guys ready to go game 1. Score against Cal? Vegas has it 11-30 for Cal.

I think 11-30 is about right. Close to the 10-30 we played Stanford last year.. But Stanford last year was a better team than Cal is likely to be.