I presume you got this information from gauchodan's post from the Big West board.

I think it's more realistic that UCD will get a 4th, 5th, or 6th seed.
I personally prefer a 6th seed, since I don't want to face UCI in the second round if the marbles end up that way.
On the other hand, I'd prefer a higher seed just to improve team morale.

To get a third seed, exactly five games have to go our way. I find that as less probable.

Gauchodan's relevant post below:

UC DAVIS (7-7)
3/7 vs. Hawai'i
3/9 vs. UC Riverside

Davis finishes 3rd if
they go 2-0 AND Santa Barbara goes 0-2 AND Northridge loses at Irvine

Davis finishes 4th if
they go 2-0 AND Santa Barbara wins at Northridge OR
they go 2-0 AND Santa Barbara goes 0-2 AND Northridge goes 2-0 OR
they go 2-0 AND Santa Barbara goes 1-1 (winning at Cal Poly) AND Northridge goes 1-1 (winning vs. Santa Barbara) OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Hawai'i) AND Riverside goes 2-0 AND Hawai'i goes 0-2 AND Northridge loses at Irvine OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Hawai'i) AND Riverside goes 2-0 AND Santa Barbara goes 2-0 AND Northridge goes 0-2 AND Hawai'i wins at Fullerton

Davis finishes 5th if
they go 2-0 AND Northridge goes 2-0 AND Santa Barbara wins at Cal Poly OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Hawai'i) AND Riverside goes 2-0 AND EITHER Hawai'i wins at Fullerton OR Northridge wins at Irvine OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Hawai'i) AND Long Beach wins vs. Riverside AND Hawai'i goes 0-2 AND Northridge loses at least once OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Riverside) AND Long Beach wins vs. Riverside AND Northridge loses at Irvine

Davis finishes 6th if
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Riverside) AND Long Beach loses vs. Riverside AND Northridge wins at Irvine OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Riverside) AND Long Beach wins vs. Riverside AND Northridge lose at Irvine OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Riverside) AND Long Beach wins vs. Riverside AND Hawai'i goes 2-0 AND Northridge goes 1-1 (winning at Irvine) OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Hawai'i) AND Riverside goes 2-0 AND Hawai'i wins at Fullerton AND Northridge wins at Irvine AND Santa Barbara lose at least once OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Hawai'i) AND Long Beach wins vs. Riverside AND Northridge goes 0-2 AND Hawai'i wins at Fullerton OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Hawai'i) AND Long Beach wins vs. Riverside AND Northridge goes 1-1 (winning vs. Santa Barbara) AND Hawai'i wins at Fullerton OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Hawai'i) AND Long Beach wins vs. Riverside AND Northridge goes 2-0 AND Hawai'i goes 0-2
they go 0-2 AND Northridge goes 0-2

Davis finishes 7th if
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Riverside) AND Long Beach wins vs. Riverside AND Northridge wins at Irvine AND Santa Barbara loses at least once OR
they go 1-1 (winning vs. Hawai'i) AND Long Beach wins vs. Riverside AND Hawai'i wins at Fullerton AND Northridge wins at Irvine OR
they go 0-2 AND Northridge wins at least once

Man that is some heavy work. I'm not sure where I'd rather end up. CSUN scares me as I don't think we match up well with them, but they are a young team and playing in the Honda Center can be tricky. I guess I'd lean towards wanting to play UH (although that might change after Thursday). As Toke pointed out, they don't seem to be playing well right now, plus they always bring a good rooting section to Anaheim so it's a fun atmosphere.

I didn't know about Gauchodan's posting, so I take all the blame for my analysis, but I do have to admire what he did. Seems like a lot of work. I like the Ags to beat Hawaii at the Pavilion. Not so sure about a neutral site after seeing how Hawaii matches up with Davis when they beat them by 20 out here. I have to admit that having the Aggies get to the NCAAs is a real long shot no matter what.

honestly I’d be happy if we win in round one and compete well in round 2. But anything can happen.

All I know is there are days when you get so hot shooting the ball, that it does not matter who is guarding you. Me, I just kept backing up until I was shooting near mid court. It did not matter resulks were the same. No one came out to guard me. But, when I played, they only counted as two points. Today, it would destroy a team. I do remeber teammates would say don't shoot from that far out. But, i said an uncontested shot is always easier to make than a contested shot. I remeber my best day when I hit 17 in a row from deep. Unfortunately this was just in a city ball league.

Gauchodan over at the BigWest board put this together as the likely outcomes based on some predictor:

The DCI predicts the following results:

Wednesday: Long Beach
Thursday: Irvine, Davis, Northridge
Saturday: Davis, Santa Barbara, Fullerton, Irvine

Giving us:

1 Irvine 15-1
2 Fullerton 11-5
3 Santa Barbara 9-7
4 Davis 9-7
5 Long Beach 8-8
6 Northridge 8-8
7 Hawai'i 7-9
8 Riverside 3-13
9 Cal Poly 2-14 — Gauchodan

I guess that's as good a draw as any. We've split with Beach, winning at home, but our loss at LB was a close one. Honestly, other than UCI vs UCR, the rest could go either way.

slipping into 6th wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. start with (likely) UCSB and then have to beat Fullerton to get to Irvine. I don't see anyone beating Irvine. They defend really well, and have multiple scoring options both inside and out.

Does anyone know what the Big West tie-breakers are for seeding purposes? We split with UCSB so if both teams are 9-7 is Gauchodan correct in seeding the Ags 3rd?

if I remember correctly: head to head, then you look at record against the top team (Irvine). If both teams had the same record against the top team, go to the second team, etc. ties at the top are resolved first before using teams to determine tiebreakers.

After the loss to Hawaii, I think the best we can do for seeding is #5. We could pass CSUN, but not Long Beach or Hawaii. This is bad because anything below the 4 seed means we would have to likely play UCSB, then CSU Fullerton and finally UCI to win the tournament, barring any upsets. Last night was the critical game. Worse, if the Aggies don't get their mojo back they could be one and done in the Big West tournament.

Yep "Barring any upsets". Honestly, I could see a team like UCSB losing in the first round, or winning the whole thing. Outside of UCI and UCR (polar opposites), there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of difference. As always, it's going to be the team that can dictate their tempo, deal with the tournament pressure, and shoot in the caverness Honda Center. I've got my hotel lined up for the whole weekend, so I'm banking on at least one of our teams (both???) making it to the championship! If not, have to find something else to do in Anaheim.

Edit: Just read over on the Big West board that we'll finish 6th or 7th, depending on Saturday nights results. That gives us either CSUF or UCSB in the first round. At least we know we can compete with either if we bring our A game.