@Russ Bowlus@zythe I think we're all on the same page here.

:up: :beer:

Beat NAU. Start strong.

There is no rhyme or reason to the polls. Not consistently weighing the same factors. Where we have the tougher schedule then we’re behind a team that scores more, on the other hand we’re behind teams because they have a tougher schedule. Or sometimes we’re behind teams because of last year.
I prefer computer rankings.

Oh, man prob been 10 yeas since I've posted here - I stopped after I stopped covering that Ags years ago on D2football/Great West (a few of you might remember me from back in the day) and got a job that kept from being as involved.

My two cents: The Ags are legit IMO, this is best team in terms of pure talent since the days of JTO at the Toom. (Damn they were fun to watch). I think they a top 5 team. I watch (and bet) on a lot of FCS so have seen almost all of these teams in the top 15 team play multiple times (thanks ESPN+ and direct TV sport package). Hard to discredit the Ags resume to date. Lets take a look...

SJSU: FBS win is an FBS win. Spartans beat UNLV and have lost to SDSU and Hawaii by 3.
San Diego: Yup, their massey/Sagarin rating wont be as impressive but they'll win the pioneer and be the playoff rep so this holds up as a big win to the committee (reminder: they've beaten a Big Sky team IN THE PLAYOFFS in each of the last two year).
Stanford: hung in nicely with an upper tier P12, game will be thrown away by the committee, doesnt matter.
Idaho: they are not good, everyone with a pulse has pounded them.
Idaho St: Yup, lucky to win the game with the missed FG but the breaks go your way sometime and this win is the most impressive to date IMO. They beat a good UND team, Montana St, and were leading FBS Liberty mid way through the 3rd. This team is good. Hero Sports does a ranking that takes into account sa few things to power rank teams. ISU is 9th in that poll.
Northern Colorado/Poly: both not very good team, cant take much away here.
Montana: Dont poo poo the Montana game, the Ags werent ready for the noise and it affected them. 25k rocking in Wash Grizz stadium. Penalties all over. Montana beat a VERY good UNI team, lost by 3 to a solid WIU group, lost to a good UND team. If you remove the PSU game the Grizz have played a damn tough schedule. PSU looking better by the week too. Going to Montana and winning the way they did was impressive!!

Yeah UCD hasn't played Weber or EWU but they are beating the good teams on their schedule and destroying the bad ones. I'm confident this team can play with just about anyone not named the Bison.

The EWU game is going to be one heck of a challenge. Gubrud is out but their backup (Barriere) can play. Strong arm & super athletic. I watched 3 quarters of the game vs Idaho and he's talented. Dont think there will much of a dropoff from Gage from what limited stuff I've seen. He struggled At Weber but that was his first start, on the road, and against a top 5 D. Aggies should be about a 5-6 point underdog up in Cheney as of today.

Also while I'm at it let look at the rest of the Top 10 and how I think the Ags stack up: (FCS stats poll)
1. Bison - your national champs (22nd in the sagrain ranking, CRAZY for an FCS team - man they are good). Loaded everywhere, QB Stick might get drafted will def be a free agent with some team. Two studs in the backfield.Top 15 defense statistically in easily the best FCS conference)
2. Kennesaw St - I think this is a very good team BUT they havent beaten a team over .500 yet. Should have beaten FCS Georgia St to open the year. Destroying everyone in their path. Option team led by a stud a QB, Chandler Burks. They'll be a problem in the playoffs. Will know more in 3 weeks when they play at Jax St to end the year. A top 5 team for me though.
3. JMU - Elite defense, offense is Blah. Pitt Transfer DiNucci took over at QB and has been just OK. Given their talent at RB I'm surprised to not see more from the O. Loss at Elon (good team) and 13 points at home vs Stony Brook (also a good team) but they wouldnt be my #3. Still an elite D will get you far (and they lost their best AA CB pre-season who will be drafted)
4. Weber St - See JMU first sentence. D is legit. Offense has been stinky. QB is making progress and coming along, gotta monitor how they progress to end the year.
5. EWU - Damn good, Top 5 with Gubrud maybe still top 5 without as I mentioned above the backup can play from what I've seen.
6. Ags
7. SDSU - this would be my #2 team (not based on resume but based on talent), Think the Jacks have only shot of beating Bison and that shot is slim to none esp as the path will go through the Fargo Dome. Veteran team led by a strong D and vet QB who is familiar with beating NDSU (twice last two years, hung tough early this year)
8. Elon - Impressive home win vs JMU earlier this year. Since then, their Qb was lost for season. Gonna be an issue now for. Will see how they come along.
9. Wofford - similar to Kenny St, run the option and play very good D.
10. Jax St - Clemson xfer Zerrick Cooper took over at QB. D was legit last year, O stunk. Cooper was the hope to give the O a boost. He has - winner of KSU/Jax St game could end up top 5.

This week: I expect UCD to be favored by close to 20 points. NAU is a bit of a mess. Lost their stud QB Case Cookus 4-5 weeks back and has been out since. I dont think he will be back but not entirely sure. Their backup played well then got hurt in a weird game where he was suspended to start, then came in and got hurt, is OFY. They started a frosh last week and to no one surprise struggled against Poly. I think UCD will see the kid this weekend in Davis. Cant let your guard down, team still has some players but if UCD down win by 20+ I'll be surprised.

Wow I rambled.... apologies for all the misspellings and so forth was typing fast. Go Ags.

i think i remembered your Great West write ups back in the day, and I've always enjoyed reading them.

For some odd reason, your Southern Utah pick as the deep sleeper to win the Great West a long time ago stuck in my mind.

I'm hoping to see more write ups from you in the future.

awesome write up, thanks

Thks. But can our D stop the Bison, or contain them?

Eastbayaggie - your handle looked familiar so assume you've been around since i was last here. :)

Thanks Agalum, i know the FCS landscape as well as anyone so figured i would share.

Ags v Bison:
Saggy says the Ags would be about 20 point underdog on a neutral. Throw in 3 for home field and that's NDSU -23 over UCD. Do i think the Bison are 23 points better than UCD? I tend to beleive this Ags team is very very good so no but that said beating the Biosn would be a monumentally tough task. First, lets assume the matchup happens before the title game that means you played them at the FargoDome (unless you met them in Frisco Texas for the title). Davis better be more prepared to deal with the noise (18k in a dome.... anyone remember @UND in 2001, losing 14-2 in national seminfinals?) than they were on Sat. The crowd had a big impact on that game in the first half and UCD was out of sorts on offense.

The Bison are so balanced with a great decision maker at QB who is athletic and can also bail out any play with his legs. Bison are going to get theirs. I will say, I dont think there are many teams (if any) that can fully shut down this Aggie offense (if not making mistakes: penalties/turnovers). Smart QB who make great decision, an OL that protects him, two stud backs, and deep talent with speed and length at WR. Davis matches up fine on that side of the ball. Man, it would be fun to see.

FWIW, lines for FCS games just dropped. I was off by 1 point. Davis is a 21 point fav over NAU this weekend. If i get any updates on the Qb sitch i will pass it along.

Awesome write ups and analysis, CK2. Stick around and keep us informed!

Can you come back permanently? Love the insight

Thanks for the kind words, appreciated. Miss my time covering the Ags/FCS. Some damn good teams back in the day. I’ll def stick around and try to be more involved.

is that THE Chris Kelly?!!?

Haha. Yes it is.....

.

I just took a 6 am trip down memory lane by reading some of your 2006-2007 Great West write-ups. Was a student back then and really enjoyed following the team through your written coverage seeing as how we couldn't just turn on ESPN for GWFC analysis. Seeing names like John Faletoese, Jon Grant, Tony Kays, Chris Carter ... good times!

In case anyone's interested: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/gwfc/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/GWFCPreview-Part2.pdf

So crazy to see the trajectories that the GWFC teams have taken over the past decade, and to remember the level of competitiveness among those teams week in and week out.

Welcome back, Chris.

Thanks Kerberos & SocherField.

Not much remains from those days except that specific article as the website is now gone & D2 foots purged all their old stuff.. I've continued to follow Aggie football closely & stay as up to date as I can.