I definitely don't agree with this computer simulation since this says UC Davis will be undefeated for the rest of the schedule.

http://aaronmangels.com/mangelscfb/team.php?UC_Davis

Please prove me wrong! :)

Yes, Idaho fans are unhappy with Coach Petrino. They're not happy with his decision to play his son, though there are some fans who think the other contender isn't up to the job either. I don't think I've seen Mason play quarterback; I didn't make it to many Vandal games last year. Initially I thought Idaho would win this game for sure, but now who knows? If we win this one I might go out to Missoula for that game.

Hahaha, I don't think that is likely. We play both Montana and Eastern Washington on the road. I'm not counting us out for any of the games left on the schedule though. I think that this team can compete with the best of them.

There was another thread where Idaho fans weren't happy with their offensive and defensive lines. What's your opinion on that?

Agree that it's unlikely, and I think the simulation doesn't necessarily dispute that. Having a 70%-90% chance to win each game still makes a couple of random losses highly probable.

According to the bottom of the link:

Current Wins-Losses: 2-1
Expected Wins-Losses: 9.1-1.9
Prob. of Winning All Remaining: 37%

This is still too optimistic, but I'll take it. :)

The sample set for Idaho this season is very extreme. Should be an interesting game.

eastbayaggie, I haven't read that one. I remember reading some comments about the offensive line and the annual comments about our DBs.

They were 9-4 on 2016, last year only 4 wins but a ton of close games.

I was reading on their fan forum that they've noticed a significant drop off in the talent since they announced the move to FCS. Their FBS players are starting to graduate out now.

It's still tough to see where Idaho is actually at though. Blowout loss to Fresno and blowout win against a D2. Neither of those things tell us a ton other than they lost to a team they should have and beat a team they should have. We are their first real taste of the Big Sky.

plus the game vs W. New Mexico was 21-10 at the half, 28-10 after 3. they scored 28 in the 4th to put up the big numbers.

Idaho is terrible. Frenso State, which is a good team, played average and destroyed them. We should dominate this game. Their offense was completely shut down by Fresno's 1's. The kids need to get up for this one...nothing worse than a letdown at this point. Blow them out, get backups time, and stay healthy.

I think as a program we now get the right to be a little more cynical about the FBS moniker. We were just a few more conversions away from being "in the game" in the second half against the best team on the west coast, and our O already cut through a mountain West defense like a hot knife through butter. So compared to our track record, Fresno's beatdown of the vandals is a pretty bad look.

Zander, I wouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves... take San Jose ... a struggling team, very young, inexperienced HC who has never even been a coordinator, they picked the wrong QB to start, and they came out flat. Hard to apply all those to any other FBS team. After the 1st Q they played us tough, 4th QB moved the team well, then their top running back coughs up the ball and leaves the game.

As far as Fresno and Idaho, Fresno just whacked UCLA 38-14 ... a letdown would be horrible. We can assume nothing.

Home crowd, big game, we need to prove we're real. The old axiom, one game at a time.

BTW, Josh Kelley didn't play, and Jordan Allen has been converted to linebacker and has 2 tackles after 3 games.

Various polls have us favored from 3 to 10 points.

http://www.compughterratings.com/CFB/simulations

Davis 39/Idaho 30

https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=300937&t0=University+of+California%2C+Davis&h=1&s1=300937&t1=Idaho

Davis 34/Idaho 31

You forgot the 23.8 win margin with a 97% win probability from the below simulation. :)

http://aaronmangels.com/mangelscfb/team.php?UC_Davis

I feel much better about our defense after last week. Offense will get back in sync. We win comfortably

I agree with your first point... I am cautiously jubilant.

Idaho fans are saying this is their bellwether.

Whew! ***wiping sweat from forehead***

I'm glad the Aggies made it out of the Stanford game pretty much intact and can get ready for conference play.

It's all Big Sky from here on...8 games.

Idaho
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Cal Poly
Montana
Northern Arizona
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State

Everything else is in the past and just doesn't matter.

The Aggies just need to ball out and get the "W" enough times in conference play and finish in the top 3 to begin a new era of Aggie Football in 2018.

The question is "Can the coaches get them there?"

Go Aggies!

Any news on Harrel? And I don’t recall seeing Vaughn after first quarter at Stanford. I remember him dropping a pass, and then don’t recall anything. He made some big plays against USD.

We need to go 3-1 in the first 4 cuz that final 4 games are REALLY tough. Is it realistic to think 3-1, followed by 2-2? 7 might not be playoff worthy but certainly trending where we need to be

Isn't this a prime year with a 6'3" NFL wide receiver, a legit TE, and Maier?

Defense so far took a big jump, needed if we want to be playoff caliber.

The upper limit for this team is pretty high, we don’t know we may be a better team than anyone we play, or not.
We need four quality wide receivers which is a bit of a question mark, as we don’t know why some guys didn’t play against Stanford. Still expect Thomas to make a big improvement to our running game.
Defense could continue to improve. We’re more mobile, have a pass rush, better tackling, good depth, we could be very good. Our JC transfers from last year like Moe and Cloud got some experience and are improved, we got an infusion of talent from our frosh and red shirt frosh, we’ve moved players from safety to lb and from lb to de, so we’re more mobile; we’re dropping DL guys into coverage and blitzing DBs. Net result is we get stops where last year not so much.
Last year I thought we were better than Weber until we played them and our defense gave up a score on virtually every early possession. If we are the kind of team that will do anything in the playoffs beat either Eastern Washington or Montana on the road. I’ll be disappointed if we go 2-2 over the last four unless we upset one of those teams

I expect to see more of Tehran as we enter league play.

Last season...

2017 Football Standings

Weber State... 7-1
Southern Utah... 7-1
Eastern Washington... 6-2
Sacramento State... 6-2
Northern Arizona... 6-2
Montana... 5-3
Montana State... 5-3
UC Davis... 3-5


I think the Big Sky is an "On any given Saturday..." type conference. The spread from 1st to 7th place is only 2 lost games!

I'd be very disappointed if we finished at 3-5 again in conference play this season.

It is up to the coaches to put their players in the best situations to be successful and I hope they have planned for the adjustments opposing defenses will make to stop the Doss and Maier connection.

I caught an Idaho article saying they're gonna try to slow down our passing game.

I can see the Aggies winning all but one of their remaining games. Eastern Washington is now ranked #6 in the FCS Coaches poll and even though they are at UC Davis, I would be surprised if the Ags wiin that one.

Too soon to tell.

Not exactly. We are AT SLO, EWU, and Montana.

Yup, EWU at Aggie Stadium was last yr. But you're right about them being really tough. I think they'd win either home or away, but the Ags could beat any of the other teams. Idaho scares me since they were FBS.