More likely a sample size problem than a realtimerpi problem. Gauchodan from the Big West forums also has us #22 in RPI.
If we come into the tournament with 3-6 losses I could see a #13 seed; didn't Irvine have that the year they were a bucket away from beating Louisville? More likely though if we make it to the tournament we have closer to 10 losses because of growing pains and get #15 or #16 again.
If we keep losses to maybe 5 or 6, WSU keeps doing well, and if we beat a tough Nevada (who may be ranked by the time we play em), I could see a 13 or 14 assuming we can get through BW.
UCSB has had a strong start this yr w their new coach, Beach just knocked off Stanford and has lots of exposure to high major bball, UCI is always tough, Hawaii, etc. Let’s see what we can do. I definitely think we have a shot. Our defense might be even better than last yr, and that was a darn good gritty D. Big questions are how we’ll perform vs size and if we can improve consistency on offense. TJ Shorts can hopefully help Chima and Siler with that
Guys on big west board were saying that win makes us league favorite. Really? UCSB has some good wins and high RPI (meaningless this early), Irvine should be very good, the beach is always tough in league and poly is much improved (beat cal, right?). I’m just used to seeing us in the 200’s so the 20’s is a nice switch
It’s fun to speculate but I don’t see us as the clear favorite in the Big West at this point. We have shown some exciting potential but we’ve also been very inconsistent especially on offense. Good D emerges before good offense with a team like the Aggies with so many new players. Hopefully, the WSU game was an indication of what’s to come.
i agree completely. i think its going to be a very competitive Big West this year. northridge and riverside look down, but everybody else looks pretty even. always hard this early because the preseason scheduling is so different. i was wrong before -> poly beat santa clara, not cal.
after graduating 4 of our top 6 players, and losing another rotation guy to transfer, its pretty exciting to see us playing this well, this early.
The thing that is exciting about this year is that it shows that Les can continue a winning tradition, even after loosing so many contributors. I was afraid we'd get into a situation where we'd have a good, senior led team, only to have to re-build for a few years until the next large group of seniors comes around. This year's success, so far, shows that there is a winning philosophy that can continue from year to year. Next year, yes we'll lose Chima, but players like Shorts, Siler, Goode, John will be there to continue that philosophy. They'll pass it down to the Jackson/Strom/Underwood/Nelson's of the world, and the winning (hopefully) continues. Exciting times for Aggie basketball!
The two statements that might be fair are that we have some of the best individual talent in the Big West and that this team is has one of the highest peaks, in that on a day the shots are falling the Ags are capable of beating anybody in the conference.
I remember last year there were several games where we struggled on offense but got bailed out by Lemar turning into Steph Curry for five minutes at a time. We'll need those kinds of offensive spurts from the shooters again down the stretch when teams key in on Chima.
I think that we have a very new weapon in Shorts. We have not had an effective slasher driver in D1 times. This adds a dimension that cannot be overstated at this point. Chima knows it will only make him better and he gave a big shout out to Shorts about that. Great times for aggie BB; men and woman both of course.
Yes, very impressed with Shorts. Exactly the time of gem that Les needs to keep finding. Too small to get recruited by the power 5 schools, but a great player.
I think you may have forgotten that Corey Hawkins was "an effective slasher driver in the D1 times." The thing I like about TJ is that, not only can he slash and drive to the basket, but he has lighting quick hands and can pick players pockets. He is also an excellent passer and can dish out the assists. He's an exciting player!
It's official. The NCAA released their official RPI rankings yesterday and we are indeed ranked #22. We are sandwiched between a couple of heavy hitters: #21 Kentucky and #23 West Virginia. How's that for some elite company! :-O
For some perspective, the following are some current rankings of teams of interest to Aggie fans:
A few Big West teams:
UCSB #31
UCI #113
LBSU #116
Teams the Ags have played:
Utah Valley #47
Washington State #57
Washington #105
Northern Colorado #152
Pacific #197
Sac State #305
Some upcoming OOC games:
Nevada #7
Lamar #145
Pacific #197
San Francisco #240
Some other west coast teams:
SDSU #35
Boise State #42
USC #48
Gonzaga #60
Montana State #75
Fresno State #81
Portland State #87
St Mary's #92
UCLA #96
Bakersfield #130
Poly #193
Stanford #201
Cal #282
Santa Clara #338
I was curious as to how rpi is actually calculated.
Excerpt from Wikipedia:
"The rating percentage index, commonly known as the RPI, is a quantity used to rank sports teams based upon a team's wins and losses and its strength of schedule. ... Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 its opponents' opponents' winning percentages."
So WSU and Washington will pull our RPI up the whole season because we'll get credit for their pac 12 opponents. And the WCC teams we face will bouy us with Gonzaga and St Mary's.
Man does this setup favor power conferences though. If I'm understanding it right then it's better to get blown out by top teams than beat weaker teams.
It does seem that way. SOS is huge. One of the reasons the Aggies' RPI is so high is that many of the power schools play down in the early season and pad their records with wins over mid-major schools. So, even though we have a great RPI at the moment, it's deceptive because many of the big name schools have not played challenging schedules but, in reality, they are very tough teams.
Also while Washington and WSU will naturally help us with their opponents being pretty strong (down yr for the Pac12 though), it can also hurt us if they lose- which is quite possible against a tougher schedule. So I'm their biggest fan now :) Unfortunately Nevada lost to Texas Tech in overtime today.
Well alrighty, so Washington beats #2 Kansas on the road by 9 and we only lost to the Huskies by 7 in their house, therefore we would beat Kansas by 2. Nice! 8-)
If my vague memory serves me well, I think UC Davis was hovering around 80 RPI during Hawkins era. I was projecting that we would be a #14 seed if we had won the Big West tourney.