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Goags20172
162Now that the schedule is out it gives me a better chance to estimate the won- loss record. Earlier this off- season I guessed 18 wins. Let's see what happens now.
Bakersfield (1- 2). The Roadrunners have some historical ownage on the Aggies. Their park is pretty hitter- friendly, but they were a team that would single you to death last year (finished among the bottom- finishers in homeruns in the NCAA in 2017), and back it up with good pitching. It will be a big test early on for the Aggie pitching staff.
Stanford (0- 2) Yes, I want them to win but...
Creighton (2- 1) In the all- time series (6 games), the Aggies' 4 losses were all close. You play last year's series in Davis I think the Aggies win 2. And Alex Trautner will be eager to beat the team he almost played for. Consider Trautner the x factor.
Nobody (0- 0) I guarantee no losses in this series.
St. Mary's (1- 1) I'm not convinced that St. Mary's is that formidable an early week foe. When I saw them in Davis the Aggies had the Gaels on the ropes a couple times, but had two runners thrown out at the plate on bad baserunning plays. It was like someone read in the rule book that you must run to the next base no matter where the ball is hit. In the two losses in 2017 questionable pitching changes also factored.
Oregon (1- 3) The Ducks are not like the Beavers. I think they're beatable. I just don't know how beatable.
Santa Clara (1-0) Even when Davis isn't playing well it still does well against the Broncos.
Northern Colorado (3- 1) Not one of the stronger teams in the WAC, and Davis has home advantage.
Cal (0- 1) See Stanford
Riverside (1- 2) Aggies typically struggle a bit in the Highlanders' park.
Hawaii (2- 1) They beat HI twice on the road. Why not ?
Cal Poly- (1- 2) See Riverside
SAC State (1- 1) Each team wins at home.
Santa Barbara (2- 1) Aggies have won the last 2 series. There's reason to be optimistic. Get down...
San Francisco (2- 0) They can have all the winning seasons they want but come Tuesdays they're just meh...
Long Beach (0- 3) because that's what usually happens
Fullerton (0- 3) See Long Beach
Northridge (2- 1) They aren't scared of the Matadump, or is that the name of the bball arena ? I forget.
New Mexico (1- 2) The Lobos have the advantage playing at that altitude.
Irvine (2- 1) ......and stay down !
That leaves the Aggies with a 23- 28 record (10- 14 in conference). Why 51 games and not 52 as they state on the website ? Because Davis counted an April game with San Jose State in their total but didn't add it to the website schedule, which the Spartans did. Oopsie ! Count that game and it's 24- 28.
I think we can attribute a record improvement to a slightly weaker schedule. You have Oregon not Oregon State, Creighton at home not in Omaha, N. Colorado instead of UCONN. New Mexico for Grand Canyon is a wash. I will say that the last few weeks are pretty rough..the Dirtbags and Titans on back to back weekends. However, it is advantageous that the pitching staff won't be spread as thin. They only absolutely need a 5th starter once, and they have plenty of time to rest in week 3 with no games. There are only 10 (11 if you count SJSU) Monday and Tuesday games. -
Goags20172
162You know, I saw about 36 players practicing at that fall game, and I can name maybe 28 of them at most (assuming everyone with eligibility remaining returned except for Ryan Steindorf), and that's including the freshman players whose names we've thrown around here (and 2 we haven't) There are going to be a few names on the roster none of us recognize that might make a big impact. I'm assuming they'd be mostly infielders, maybe another catcher.
I was surprised I didn't see Guillermo Salazar play. He's easy to recognize looks like a slugger, and everyone calls him "G" when he's at bat. Wonder if he graduated. Maybe Proaggieguy or Aggiebaseball saw him in one of the other games. -
FullertonBaseballFan
11Going to play neutral Devil's advocate here. How do you expect Davis to be relatively close to .500 overall and in conference after losing all three SP's, two of whom were drafted in the teens? The history up there is when Vaughn has a new pitching staff on the weekends, the results are poor because of the lack of recruiting (i.e., guys usually don't make an immediate impact and he has to develop them over 2-3 seasons). FWIW, Davis does have potential on offense to keep them competitive but the pitching is going to be a major problem. This looks like a down year for the Aggies.
In terms of Big West teams, the top three are the same as last year - Fullerton, Long Beach, Cal Poly (who will be better overall after a disastrous start in '17 that sank their regional hopes). UCSB will be the next in line with several top 25 recruiting classes. At least three of those teams will be in regionals. Hawaii will be better (return almost everybody, losing only 2 position players and 1 SP). Irvine's pitching will be much better (hitting will be an issue). Northridge will be about the same and they finished in 4th. Riverside will be about the same but they are starting to recruit better thanks to Percival's name (and bloodlines - son was in BA's top 500 pre-draft last year as a HS SR). -
FullertonBaseballFan
11Sorry to have offended you.
Results since the senior led regional team in 2008.
2009 - 13-42, 5-19 (9th)
2010 - 26-29, 9-15 (7th)
2011 - 18-26, 10-14 (7th)
2012 - 27-30, 12-12 (5th)
2013 - 19-37, 5-22 (10th)
2014 - 23-31, 7-17 (7th)
2015 - 30-26-1, 9-15 (7th)
2016 - 17-36, 5-19 (9th)
2017 - 21-30, 10-14 (5th)
UC Davis has gotten over .500 overall once in the last nine years. They have finished 5th twice in the last nine years, including last year. The track record has been after their better seasons (2012, 2015) things come crashing down the next season (last place in 2013 and 2016). With UC Davis finishing fifth and losing three SP's and their closer, the cupboard for the pitching staff is pretty bare until proven otherwise. UC Davis hasn't recruited at a level to immediately replace personnel losses (either with newcomers or with roster depth), which is why the ebb and flow from mid level to the bottom of the conference. The tendency is to build (2012), regress (2013), build (2015), regress (2016). UC Davis might win a few more non-conference games in 2018 but with the way the Big West looks for 2018, things don't look favorable to do that well in the conference standings. -
ProAggieGuy
10I pretty much agree with the win-loss expectations. I would say 25-30 would be respectable. My hope is that the Sophomore/Junior pitchers get the experience they need this season. I know a bunch of them and know what they are capable of. Given the chance, they will rise to the Occassion. They may have taken a small step backwards on the bump, but expect two steps forward next season. The bats should be improved from last year and that will help give the pitchers a buffer while they need it... Go Aggies!!! -
DrMike
714I was just curious how your predictions match up with current reality. you saw them as something like 7-9; reality is 5-12. you had us winning 3 of 4 vs. UNC; turned out the other way. other than that series, you have called it just about right.
i'm not sure how much you've been able to watch them, but based on current results, how do you feel about your 23 (or so) win prediction?
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