To be clear I think the team can recover and there were some upsides but man this is disappointing

Was that... our worst quarter of the season we just saw?

...in the most important game of the season where rust is no longer any sort of excuse?

It's funny to think about how every minute that ticks by makes UCD's odds of the championship and one seed go up. This is a very weird season.

Email from Coach Abeyta today mentions the title on the line but has a very peculiar wording:
"The Ags are prepped for the Wahine's aggressive Man-to-Man defense as they fight to keep their favorable seeding heading into next week's tournament play."

Maybe I'm reading too much into it but it seems UCD is being very cautious in talking about potential outcomes. I haven't seen an official statement mention a title being possible until today, and the quote above is weirdly vague for a team that should be top-two seeded regardless if we understand the conference formulas right. Maybe the department has just completely decided to let the BWC announce the results and not do the math for us.

Given the abbreviated schedule and normal East Coast bias of these things I'll take it.

UCD is sitting at 61 in NET ranking, which I believe is 13th among counted mid-majors so computers track with the poll pretty nicely. (Not sure I agree with the poll's criteria for mid-major but it is what it is).

None that I can see

Thanks for the great analysis! That does seem very hopeful. So if Aggies get on the plane at all we're in good shape sounds like.

Still don't like this system. It has the potential for punishment against teams that did nothing wrong; for example if Irvine had a slightly better record and was our final opponent they could game the system by not making the trip out of "an abundance of caution" and then have it hurt our record worse than theirs -- effectively getting away with a forfeit that counts against the other team's record.

I don't think any team would do that in this conference, but the rules should be crafted to explicitly discourage or render obsolete that kind of gamesmanship

I believe the Big West Board folks think we're mathematically alive for first and a sweep guarantees us third seed. This week's women's thread features some nice calculations by cmt, who is currently calculating an extra loss via formula to be counted for the Women so we can expect at least the same for the Men.

https://bigwest.org/documents/2021/2/12//2020_21_BWC_Manual_Section_7_Womens_Basketball_1_15_21.pdf?id=4566

It's on page 28. Inspection reveals the procedures are the same for Men and Women.

I get that this setup seems very fair in abstract, but it was written (especially on the women's side) in the context of being perfectly aware that their top-ranked team was in the middle of a required hold (these rules were dated January). So this rule section is basically just a roundabout way of formalizing how much they'd penalize Davis, the most likely team to not meet the threshold, in the event the Ags returned and started going on a rampage -- which is what happened on the Women's side and starting to look like is happening on the Men's side.

Irvine thread seems to think they're mathematically alive for the 1-seed but the title is most likely going to Davis.

There's a noticeable lack of information about chasing the five peat in the UCD website writeups and recaps I've seen. Also the KDVS commentator vaguely said "the Ags still don't know what seed they're going to get" during a discussion of the adjusted W/L system, again without mentioning title hopes. It's all a bit uncertain and weird and sounds very much in the air whether the Aggies will be called the champions this year regardless of wins.

Don't get me wrong, I'm thankful to have a season at all and that this great group of players got to play together safely for a dozen more games. But I think there should be a little bit of justified outrage if this team finishes with the best win percentage in conference (and especially if they finish undefeated) but get the streak taken away from them due to a conference formula that specifically penalizes them for following local health restrictions.

62-53 final. Cal Poly is good.

Actually getting dicey and now Hall and Trpcic are back in

57-45 with 1:10 left. Hall and Trpcic have already taken a bow.

Announcer says it's unknown if the seniors will return now but the academic logistics may play a role

Cal Poly is doing everything right to win this game except they keep leaving Turner wide open

I shouted when Gibb got her bucket off a great pass. Sorry neighbors

Great stuff.

I wonder if with the ceremony today we just got indirect confirmation that the seniors won't be back next year. We'll miss them, but it's understandable

Huge upset, did not expect NDSU to get crushed like that. Or lose at all. Or win by less than a possession...

I wonder if the local channels for say the Montanas are an impediment to ESPN deals. I imagine the ongoing TV deals might actually be worth something beyond the exposure they don't need out there

Not a margin of victory you really expect with 22 missed threes

I love letting the bench close out the game when (for a minute at least) the Mustangs were still going all-out. Bench got quality minutes vs LBSU too

Generally one would expect that one of the top 3 pt-shooting teams would be in trouble if they shoot this abysmally from the arc, but the Ags are making it work and didn't even seem that flustered.

Feels like Trpcic can get to the line or score at will once she gets withing 15 feet of the rim or so

Cal Poly feels scarier than LBSU. Which given their head to head record that doesn't seem like coincidence -- Poly might just be the better team