ESPN website should have it if your internet provider supports ESPN3. I found the second half pretty enjoyable

https://www.espn.com/watch/player/_/id/1e67fe90-5e62-493d-9512-0b8e1c8f6c0b#bucketId=19763

I suspect it's a model based on their Basketball Power Index, which has Bake considerably above the Aggies. Per ESPN (emphasis mine):

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections"

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/bpi

I was wondering why the venue looked familiar on screen and I realized it's where the EVO fighting game championships were some years

Tuning in for lunch break. Nice of them to have the second half start at noon.

Was happy to see a 16 point lead when I tuned in, but every minute the starters are in more might hurt later

Important to remember that the Gould years were entirely sandwiched in that ten year drought, so that was three years with next to no D1 wins (his first year, different story maybe). It's also just one particular metric you could choose. Hawkins took EWU to their limits twice out of the three times his teams played them. We also had an FBS upset in that that span and had a 1-possession loss to ranked Montana State in 2012.

So really I chalk it up to bad luck that we had zero ranked wins, but it was because of several years of mediocrity that we only had a few opportunities to play ranked teams close. But one better tackle in that EWU quarterfinal or just one more third down conversion in that MSU game might have been enough to get at least one ranked win, it was that close.

Yep. At the risk of sounding pretentious, the Aggie WBB program has the NDSU problem in conference -- this is basically the opponent's natty since they know perfectly well that a) there's basically no chance of a conference title without beating the Ags in regular season, and b) then it's literally likely going to be their last game in the BWCT. Hawaii brought something close to a postseason mentality game 1 IMO, and it showed.

Last figure I heard was 90ish teams are playing. So being Top 25 means being in the top 3rd or 4th of teams or so, which seems like it could be about right for the Ags after Sat

Ah, thanks for lending the better eye/memory.

Honestly I'm wondering if showing that look alone was worth the two innefectual plays. Forces Weber to prepare for it, and they also have to think about the yet-unseen situation where Tompkins passes, which his HS stats suggest is definitely on the table. And since they have two weeks to get ready for Davis, anything that cuts into their practice time has some benefit I guess.

Stats voters put us at 23. Idaho #27, just outside, by vote count. Somewhere in the 20-25 range sounds right to me. Not sure what I'll think about next week's rankings though if we lost to Weber; still can't tell how good they really are.

Edit: Also, HERO Sports thinks UCD is the last team into the playoff field now
https://herosports.com/fcs-football-spring-3-playoff-predictions-bzbz/

I think we had a couple of misdirection plays that I personally wouldn't call trick plays, but I guess they're craftier than what you usually see out of a pro-style offense or something. The one that was fumbled for a big loss may have been developing as a WR toss as well.

Like you said, there was that direct snap to Gilliam. Also Trent Tompkins subbed in as QB for a few snaps -- it happened fast and the announcers didn't catch it immediately, so I can't remember if they were showing a wildcat look or just giving HR a breather or something.

So it's easy from a Vandal perspective to look back and recall that a disproportionate amount of Aggie snaps first half were something unorthodox, and then one of them was devastating. If you're not used to seeing the Aggies each week I guess that stands out. But you're right, we really didn't get much off them after that Crawford pass.

Re: The Tubs podcast, I've seen a couple of their shows now. Their preview show was heavily focused on how well their defense did against Eastern, how UCD didn't have many defensive stats jump out last year, it being Davis's first game, and the ? at QB for the Aggies. All very reasonable points to suggest on paper that Idaho should win the game, but all those points and then the first half seemed to serve as confirmation bias.

There were a lot of things that definitely looked in Idaho's favor, but ultimately what was missed before (in fairness, I didn't expect this either) was a) how the UCD offense basically just stayed elite with the returnees and a very good QB in the wings and b) defense had some mild improvement, especially after a few reps. And especially on point a), the podcast noted that a lot of early gains came on trick plays, but basically the only two offensive missteps int he first half for the Ags were also on necessarily risky playcalls.

Yeah, honestly, my expectations are probably getting influenced by this weekend's split. Turner was uncharacteristically quiet and had she been hitting her shots I probably would be singing a different tune about our non-senior output

Yep. That was the year Irvine -- a team that we beat by double digits twice -- went to the tourney and almost upset Louisville. Obviously you can't directly compare transitive results, but you had to feel like UCD would have definitely been seen as a serious tourney threat that year

Pretty legendary graphic from the Hawaii broadcast:

Looking at the headlines of the Aggie website this win seems to have closed out a pretty all-around great day in Aggie athletics, maybe top-to bottom one of the best in years:

Beach Volleyball got a win today, Softball won on a walkoff, Football beat a ranked team, MBB had one of its best conference finishes ever, and now WBB continues the streak.

Yeah there was the one with Corey Hawkins where we decimated almost everyone but went 1-2 against Hawaii in the season and tournament. In 2018ish as well there was that co-championship with Irvine where we got the one-seed by beating them in the final conference game. Then there was the March Madness year, where we won the tourney but not conference if memory serves.

Ah yes the time-honored UCD WBB fan tradition of finishing our last game and then squinting at the bench and trying to figure out if UCD can win another title with the returnees.

At this point in time I don't think a lineup of Carreon/Turner/Harris/Konrad/Stobbart wins the BWC, but we don't need too many more pieces either. I think there was also high expectations that Gray would be one of the main forces off the bench, and so if she's back that's kinda a big deal.

Unreal what Jen Gross and staff have done with this program. Absolutely unreal.

All backups now. A little choppy but this might be their last opportunity to get minutes

All starters except Turner are out I believe, though this might just be a defensive lineup.