2023 Week 6: Montana (4-1) @ UC Davis (3-2) Still possible to get to 7 wins and therefore an at-large bid (I think a Big Sky team with no bad losses gets the nod at 7, like Idaho last year). — Zander
I love the optimism, Zander. Maybe it's just me still feeling a bit hungover from yesterday's disappointing loss but I'm feeling less optimistic by the week. By all accounts, this is not a strong Montana team by their standards by any means. They've struggled this year against weak competition and appear to be a middle of the pack Big Sky team and I think that's exactly where we are also...right in the middle.
Here's how I think we stack up today in our remaining games given what I've seen of us and the rest of the league so far:
Weber does not appear to be as strong as they typically are but we're playing in Ogden and we always have a tough time with them. I think we'll be slight underdogs going into that game.
NAU nearly beat Sac on the road. They're a really good football team and Sac hasn't dropped off much from last year's success. I think we would lose by at least 14 points to either of those teams if we played them next week.
I'd say the Portland State game is a toss-up at this point with the Vikings having a slight edge since the game is in Portland and game at Idaho State is going to be much tougher than most folks expect.
I see us, at this point, going 4-4 in the conference at best. We simply haven't shown that we can beat the better teams in the Big Sky. Hawkins keeps telling us that the program finally has the talent and depth to be a contender for the Big Sky title but we're not seeing it yet. The games against EWU and Montana were close but we aren't winning those kind of games and those teams are not as good as Montana State, Idaho and Sac.
Injuries on offense have hurt us for sure and a lot can change between now a the end of the season in the Big Sky. I'm a loyal fan and I'll be rooting for us until the end but I'm just not that optimistic at the moment given how things have gone so far this season.