Delaware is transitioning, which is why they are unranked. Not much of an upset if at all.

It is just math for the computer rankings. No bias, thats what the algorithm yields.
By the way we look better in a tiny way because East Texas A&M won against Stephen F Austin, and SUU beat Northern Alabama.

i don’t think bidding is involved. Sixteen team are seeded top eight get a bye, next eight get a home game.

Plough press availability after game[
https://406mtsports.com/uc-davis-coach-tim-plough-on-30-14-win-at-montana/video_743bfbd6-3f45-597c-8cd1-605e042f5a73.html

This is a big win for all the reasons you mention, but it is far from the biggest upset, that has to be the Stanford game.
This game Davis’ defense really stepped up. They’ve gotten a lot of credit for the last two years, but mostly for drive stopping plays, not for a complete game, like this one where they held the score down, yield little yardage, forced turnovers and turnovers on downs. Won the physical battle.

Biggs mentored Plough as a coach, he and Moroski let Plough call plays when Plough was 25 years old. Plough owes his coaching career to Biggs.

Mateo Perez is not in his last year of eligibility.

I'm a fan of tradition, but that cheer seems like a joke I don’t get. There must be some meaning to it.
The cheerleaders used to stand on metal milk bottles which I’m ok with.

Portland State travels by bus to and from Sacramento. according to the TV broadcast team. Strange considering airports near both cities.

Sagarin now has the ratings for Montana State and Davis separated only by seven points, and Davis will be home.
Montana State hasn’t played their toughest opponents yet, Montana and Davis. Bobcats have looked good winning but no better than Davis the last few weeks. The thing that separates them is Montana State’s defense has been tough all year but Davis has the potential to be better than shown most of the season.

Dobbins played. Why do you think he might be hurt?

Cody and Plough both moved to Northern Arizona after Biggs retired, with Cody moving to College of Idaho in 2016. Cody returned to Davis and briefly overlapped with Plough in the Covid era, but no football was played. Cody was going to be the tight end coach until Plough and Keane left, after which he took over Keane’s offensive line responsibilities.

Scott Marsh Gordon several times this season has said that Mike Cody went to Boise with Plough, mistaking Mike.for.Tim Keane

That was from 2023, when he weighed 208lbs at day of test. He weighs 215 now according to roster

Laughable.
NAU is unlikely to be Davis’ first round opponent:There may only be four Big Sky teams. NAU in his projected outcomes would not have beat any playoff team, and would have an FCS record of 7-3. Their best win would be Sac who he forecasts to lose to MSU and Davis, leaving Sac with a losing record. Only losing to good teams means little unless you beat a good team and Sac wouldn’t look good in that scenario.

Why is Idaho 9-3 the fifth seed when their resume includes no wins against any team in the playoffs aside from NAU, which is questionable being in? Davis would be 9-3 with a win over Idaho. Beating Wyoming shouldn’t count that much considering they are 1-7. Albany and Abilene Christian now look not more impressive than Davis beating Southern Utah.

What I’d like to see is that Davis holds Northern Colorado to less than their average conference game points while scoring more than their average points. That ignores the fact that Davis has an above average defense while Northern Colorado has an average defense in terms of point scored against, so should be achievable. Montana just shut out N.C. Davis has a better defense than Montana, by six points a game in conference play. Davis is averaging 39.8 in conference games and Northern Colorado is averaging 11.3.

Semaj Verner has missed the last two games. I was surprised to see him listed as one of the top graded corners in FCS. He is a high level athlete who up to this year hadn’t had the opportunity to really show it at Boise or here. Anyone know his status?

I’m not vouching for the accuracy of Massey probabilities. Just saying what they imply if accurate,.
As you say these forecasts are all based on the past, if for some reason a team has underperformed its talent, or not been motivated to win by unnecessary margins, or had injuries that affected score margins the past is not predictive. While I don’t know Massey’s algorithm I believe they just estimate point spreads, and correlate that point spread with the historical probability of a win.
Davis hasn’t played to win by the biggest margin possible and has also had some player availability issues that are mostly resolved. Davis has allowed a lot of late scores after the game is decided. I believe Davis is a better team than comparative scores indicate.

Idaho is favored in their remaining games, if they win those they’ll be 9-3
Montana favored in three of their four remaining game, if they win those they’ll be 9-3
Montana State is favored in all their remaining games, if they win those they’ll be 12-0
NAU played Lincoln this year, so they only have 3 division 1 wins, if they win out they’ll only have two conference losses, which would be better than the three losses we would have in league if we lost the last three games. That may not get them in over an 8-4 Davis as I don’t think conference record would outweigh being 7-4, when their best win would be Weber or Sac State. Weber’s already lost five games, so I think they are out of playoff contention. Same with Sac unless they win out including beating MSU and Davis, that might get them to a very impressive 7-5.
Davis might squeeze in at 8-4 as the last Big Sky team, but not a sure thing.

They’ve run the ball more effectively the last two games, and Cal Poly had a statistically strong run defense.
I don’t think it would be a knock on either of the running backs we use to play Fisher enough to develop depth. The kid has a gift. He may have some deficiencies that aren’t apparent to us fans, but I’d hate to see him go elsewhere in search of playing time,

More likely than not that they’ll be 9-3.
They are said in the post by BlueGoldAg to have a 98% chance of winning against Northern Colorado, Since none of this is known to 2 significant figures we can ignore the probability of them losing that game.