I have no idea how they settle at Sac St with a 5 seed but EWU at around the 12 seed.

The losses are probably pretty similar overall. Cal (Sac) is better than Mont St (EWU) but EWU's Weber loss by 1 is better than Sac losing by 18 to Northern Iowa.

Assuming Sac beats us, both would have beaten UCD on the road and Montana (Sac in Montana, EWU at home) but EWU also has the UNLV win. EWU beat Southern Utah by 8 more despite being on the road (Sac was at home) and won at Northern Colorado by 46 (Sac won by 3).

I wasn't aware it was possible to give up 42 points in a half and still win a football game, but I guess you learn something new every day. Of course it helps when you score 35 points yourself in that half.

I promise that's not me who wrote that post (saying that because I'm firmly in the "at 8-3 we're for sure in camp").

As for the bracket, what he wrote is he expected Sac St to win out. If that does happen, I doubt we get a home game which means we're at the mercy of whoever selects the bracket as to where we'd have to travel.

How are we only down 11? EW had 280 more yards, is 3-3 on 3rd down and we’ve turned the ball over twice while they haven’t turned it over?

That ball was out. Did we not challenge or are they not allowed?

I know it's not a big deal, but can't he talk about Barriere without being ridiculous about it? Just say the guys is really good. He's definitely not the best player in all of college football and he's absolutely not the best player Hawkins has ever coached against. I mean, he said it himself that he's coached against five Heisman winners. He might not even be the best quarterback Hawkins has coached against at UCD (Trey Lance).

Just say he's really talented and a really hard player to prepare to play against and that he might be the best player in FCS (even if he's not, you could probably make an argument for it).

You mean false positive? That would seem to make sense if a bunch of them tested negative a couple days later.

Seems like a weird situation. The players originally tested positive but then subsequently tested negative, but the positive tests require isolation which is why they couldn't go. But the players are claiming tests weren't mandated but they were forced to take them.

Truth probably lies somewhere in the middle but if it's true that the team is all vaccinated, it seems like a bit much by the city.

It's much easier because of 64 teams vs 24 plus less travel (they're in pods of 4 so the winners of the 1st round don't travel to a new site for the next round) but in March Madness they do try to keep teams from the same conference away from each other as much as possible. I don't think they ever match up teams from the same conference in the 1st round and when possible, they try not to let two teams from the same conference meet until the regional finals.

That's because you have a lower percentage of teams from one conference. Google tells me the record for most teams from a conference in March Madness is 11, so less than 1/6 of the teams (this was a 68 team tourney). If the Big Sky gets 5, that's more than 1/5 (5/24). Second most in the NCAA tournament is 9, which is only 1/7th of the teams from one conference. So it's easier to spread things out. And the travel is potentially easier. Assuming you're not a 14-16 seed, you can get away with sending a 13 seed West Coast team out east (or vice versa) because if they win, they don't travel before the next game. If you send UCD to play, say, at Villanova in football and we win, then we have to fly back to Davis only to travel again a few days later.

I definitely agree though that it's fun to see teams that don't play each other face off. Always nice to see something new.

At least in that instance each team would have to win at least one game (or in Weber's case, two) to face another Big Sky team. Was no guarantee it would happen.

Do we know if they try to avoid rematches in the first two rounds? UCD-Montana wouldn't be a rematch so there's no issue there, but EW plays both teams this year. I wonder if they wouldn't want a guaranteed rematch for EW's first game. Obviously if a rematch happens down the line, oh well (like UCD-EW in 2018).

I think the Big Sky gets 5 in barring someone losing a game they shouldn't. The CAA appears to not be as good this year which helps on the at-large bid front. JMU and Villanova are locks. William and Mary and Rhode Island could both get to 8-3, but W&M still plays James Madison so they're probably going 7-4. Rhode Island could get to 8-3 but they haven't beaten a single good team this year. They just beat FBS UMass but UMass probably wouldn't make the FCS playoffs (in Sagarin, they're ranked 9 spots below Idaho St and two spots above Northern Colorado. William and Mary beat Villanova but that's it. So they could only be a 3-bid league which helps.

Northern Iowa could definitely still get in. If they went 7-4, they seem to have the resume to get in.

NDSt and SDSt are almost certainly in. Southern Illinois I would think would be in also since they should finish 8-3. If Northern Iowa wins out, that would mean beating Missouri State, who would then also finish 7-4. Missouri St would only end up with 1 win against a team probably ranked at the end of the year. Northern Iowa would not only have the H2H win over Missouri St but wins over SDSt, Southern Illinois and Sac St. South Dakota (6-3) is also in the mix but they end the year with SDSt and NDSt, so decent chance they end up 6-5. They did beat Northern Iowa, but that's their only win over a team that would be ranked. So barring upsets, I wouldn't be surprised if Northern Iowa gets in. They played every good team in that conference plus added Sac St.

Totally understandable. We’re going to find out a lot about this team the next two weeks. Going 2-0 would probably be the most surprising result but it’s not like either Sac or EW is peak NDSt where if you lose by 15 it’s a good result. No set of results the next two weeks will truly surprise me.

If we get outplayed in both but win both by a single point, we’re basically guaranteed a bye. EW will be a top 10 team this week and wouldn’t drop much with a close road loss. Then they’ll probably beat PSU so they’d probably end the year at worst in the 10-12 range. Sac could be a top-10 team by the time we play them (don’t know the other results in front of them this week plus who knows what happens next week) so they’d probably end up in the same 10-14 range. So we’d have an FBS win plus two wins over playoff teams who will probably host games in that scenario.

Yeah, only way we’re #4 is if we win twice.

Blown out twice I bet we’re still in but would 100% be on the road.

I still think it's going to take an upset for the Big Sky to not get 5. FWIW, this playoff prediction on AGS has the Big Sky easily getting 5.

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?285441-Week-9-Playoff-Prognostication

This one has 5 also:

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-2021-playoff-predictions-9-bzbz/

I posted in another thread that since the bracket expanded to 24 teams, no 8 win or better team from the Big Sky, CAA or MVFC had ever missed out on the playoffs. UCD and Mont St are already at 8. EW and Sac just have to beat Portland St to be at 8 and Montana just has to beat Idaho. The H2H games between the top-5 don't matter as far as getting to 8 wins unless there's an upset.

My best guess in the STATS poll is that we jump from 8 to either 7 or 6. We won't jump NDST and SDST will almost certainly jump us for beating NDST. I think we'll leap Southern Illinois and SE Louisiana. Eastern Washington is a maybe. If we go ahead of EW, we're 6 and if we don't, we're 7.

Could also be that he's more comfortable in the pocket now and is going through his progressions more so he doesn't feel the need to take off at the first sign of trouble.

I don't know if either thought is correct, just throwing out a potential alternative reason as to why the rushing numbers have declined.

Agreed on the ranking, though that will obviously be sorted out in the next two weeks. 2-0 and we’re a solid top-5 team regardless of the scores. 1-1 and we’re probably in the 8-13 range depending on the exact scores of the games. 0-2 and we drop to the 17-22 range, again depending on the scores.

Yep. I’m just going off the STATS poll for three actual rankings. I don’t even look at the Coaches Poll. EW might stay above us but the other two will definitely drop, even if it’s only a couple spots.