If only we were down just 7 instead of 14, a FG wouldn’t hurt so much.

Was thinking yesterday with BlueGoldAg’s post about how good we are about the turnovers. We’d picked off 11 and only thrown 2 or 3. So we were +8 or 9 in the turnover margin. Fumbles are completely lucky but interceptions are to some extent also. We weren’t going to continue being +2 on the turnovers week in and week out.

Going for it on 4th and 17 with 1:10 left when you get the ball to start the second half is incredibly dumb. Like “attempting a FG down 7 with 4 minutes left” dumb. Just punt it deep, go into half down 14 and regroup getting the ball first. If it’s 4th and short then I get it. But 4th and 17? Nope. That could cost us the game if we make a comeback in the second half.

Just checked the score. Looks like things aren’t going great.

It's tough to tell. You could also say our other three games that were close, one was against an FBS team and one was against a good Weber team (2-3 but lost to Utah and JMU). And we don't really know how good Idaho is either. They hammered a bad DII team and lost to two FBS teams. I think you're right that we're probably not the 7th/8th best team in the country but I don't think we're way overranked.

Yeah. Would probably have to be a day where a lot goes right, get a little lucky and those teams are off their games a bit.

I can't remember the specifics of how we actually looked in the game am going off the box score for the 2019 game. But we were only down 20-16 and forced NDST to punt three times and got the ball back with the chance to take the lead. We went 10 plays for 37 yards before punting and then went 11 plays for 61 yards including a 1st and goal from the NDST 4 but threw a pick on 3rd down. And that was the 16-0 year with Trey Lance at QB. And the previous year we were one stop against EWU from hosting a FCS Semifinal game.

We're close enough that pulling off an upset isn't a ridiculous proposition.

Crawford's QB rating is comical at 665. — Zander

I've always loved the college QB rating simply because it's uncapped. If you complete 1 pass for 99 yards and a TD, it's 1261.6. Conversely, if you complete 1 pass for -99 yards, your rating is -731.6. NFL is boring since it goes from 0 to 158.3.

Decided to go through some schedules. These purposes I'll include FBS games as games against ranked teams.

Closest I got were Youngstown State and Western Illinois.

Youngstown gets all 6 MVFC teams plus Michigan State, so 7 total. Western Illinois only got 4 of the ranked MVFC teams (missing NDSt and No. 15 Missouri St) but they played Montana and Eastern Washington in the FCS and Ball State (ranked behind 3 FCS teams in Sagarin)

In the Big Sky, Idaho State and Idaho both have 4 FCS and 2 FBS while Northern Colorado gets all 5 ranked Big Sky teams plus Colorado.

I only went through those three conferences since it was unlikely another team could rack up that many quality opponents while still playing a conference schedule.

Doesn't get much easier either. They still also play Stephen F Austin (#23), Delaware (#9), Sam Houston State (#1) and Missouri State (#15). Rankings from the Stats poll since it's on the NCAA website.

So they play the current #1, #2, #6, #7, #9, #15, #19, #23.

Even if you're one of the unranked teams in the Big Sky, CAA or Missouri Valley, and got super unlucky (since there isn't a true round robin in any of them), it wouldn't be this bad. Big Sky has 5 ranked and 4 in the top 10, CAA has 5 ranked and 2 in the top 10, MVC has 6 ranked and 3 in the top 10. So you'd have to get unlucky with the schedule and then add on one or two other top-10 teams in the non-conference to top it off.

Yeah, that one is odd. Eastern Washington was behind us and jumped from 10 to 5, which makes total sense. But dropping us behind Delaware, who beat a now 0-4 Albany at home doesn't make sense. Seems like we should have stayed in front of them.

There isn't really a good logical explanation for it.

The main reason is you still need a TD anyway so you're not changing anything on that front. Yes, you win the game then with a TD rather than going to OT but that's not that big of a difference. The other big reason is there's only 4 minutes left so there's no guarantee you get the ball back. You're also going to need to get a stop anyway, might as well take two shots at getting the TD rather than 1.

I know their defense played well for most of the game so maybe he did have faith in his D. Problem is, most of the game we had a different QB in. Tompkins comes in and we march it right down their throat two times in a row. You've got to factor that in. I know they got the stop but we did pick up one 1st down on that drive and had only a 3rd and 3. Pick that up and it's game over.

It's also a bad decision because it was 4th and 4 and they ended up gaining nearly 500 yards in the game. 500 yards and you don't have faith in your offense to pick up 4? You averaged 6.8 yards per play in the game! Just a bad look. Even if their offense was performing poorly on the day, that would be even more reason to go for it since you'd be no lock to get the ball back down to our 17 yard line again.

About the only situation you could justify kicking a FG down 7 with 4 minutes left is if it was 4th and very long (like 15+ yards). Even like 4th and 8 to 10, it's still a decent bet you pick it up.

4th and 7 up 3 with 3 minutes left from the Montana 23 and Eastern Washington goes for it. They picked it up too.

Not sure I would have made that call (I don't know anything about their kicker) but Petrino could learn something from that.

Haha.

FG
Get a stop
FG
Onside kick recovery
FG to win by 2!

It really is hard to express how bad of a decision that was there. But you know, Petrino's aren't exactly known for making good decisions, on or off the field!

Ballgame!

5-0.

No big plays and keep them in bounds, even if they get the 1st down.

I haven't been paying super close attention to down/distance so don't know how many 4th and shorts they passed up on but I wonder if he got scared off after they didn't convert the first one in the 1st quarter.

They don't deserve to get the ball back after such a cowardly decision.

LOL Idaho coach. My god what a dumb decision. If you kick a FG down 7 you still need a TD. Plus it's only 4th and 4. At least if it's 4th and like 15 it might make sense. But it's 4th and 4.

Holy hell how dumb that was.

Man that pick would have been nice to have.

Come on defense. One more stop please.