We're definitely trending in the right direction. No chance are we only a TD underdog in this game if it was played the week after the Portland St game. Anything can obviously happen but I don't think we get blown out either.

Hopefully it's a fun game and we can at least keep it close. Would be pretty deflating if this game is built up as some huge thing for the program and then we lose by 28.

I wish I shared Dunning's optimism. Of course, I didn't think we would beat Montana either, though part of that was the game was on the road. By the ratings and results, Montana St is a big step up from Montana. The only common opponent result where we won by more was Northern Colorado. They beat Utah Tech, Idaho, Portland St and Eastern Washington by more than we did. That's not to say we can't win by any means. We're going to have to play great. If our defense shows up like last week, we've got a legit shot to win.

Bought my tickets last night so my daughter and I will be in attendance. Looking forward to it. Beating Montana on the road and a good Idaho team has given this team a sense of legitimacy that the 2018 team didn't totally have.

Correct. #1 and #2 teams get 3 home games if they don't lose. #3 an #4 get 2 home games at least (potential for more if the seeds above win). #5-#8 get one home game for sure.

I would hope we would jump to 2, or maybe even 1 depending on if South Dakota beats North Dakota St.

UCD: 11-0 in FCS, wins over 2 top-10 teams (Idaho and Mont St) and maybe a third (Mont if they beat Mont St).
SDST: 9-1 in FCS, wins over 2 top-10 teams (South Dakota and Incarnate Word), two wins over top-15ish teams (Missouri St, who is transitioning but might finish 8-4, and Illinois St).
South Dakota: 7-2 in FCS, but no ranked wins. Alt would be if they beat NDST, they're 8-1 in FCS but only the 1 top-5 win.
NDST: 11-0 in FCS, wins over a top-3/4 SDST, a top 5-8ish South Dakota (depending on the loss), two top-15 wins (Missouri St and Illinois St) and another top-25 win (East Tenn St). Only loss to a good Colorado team by 5. So they're ahead of us if they win out. If they lose to South Dakota, then it's closer and you could make an argument for us to be 1.

It makes me very uncomfortable. It is so undefined as to make it entirely plausible that we could end up 10-2 and not in the top 8. — Riveraggie

The uncomfortableness is totally understandable after last year.

However, I refuse to believe that a 10-2 UC Davis team doesn't get a top-8 seed. I guess maybe if we got absolutely demolished (like by 50 or something). And even then we might still get top-8. Just last year Montana State went 8-3, lost to Montana 37-7 to end the year and still got a 6 seed. Losses to teams seeded 1, 2 and 4, best (and only) ranked win was over a 7-4 Sac St. So we'd have 1 less loss, comparable losses, 1 better win (Idaho) and a second equal win (us vs Mont, Mont St vs. Sac).

Heck, our 2018 team went 9-2, best wins over FBS San Jose St (who went 1-11) and a 6-5 Montana or 6-5 Idaho State, lost to Eastern Washington 59-20 in our second to last game and still got a 6 seed.

Looking at resumes:

No. 6 Incarnate Word will likely be 10-2 with a loss to South Dakota St and by 7 at a 3-7 Southern Illinois. Best win by 24 over No. 25 Northern Arizona.
No. 7 Mercer will end up at 10-2 with a loss to Alabama and a currently 3-6 Samford by 20. Best win over No. 19 Chattanooga.
No. 8 Idaho, best win over No. 14 Abilene Christian and FBS Wyoming. Losses to Oregon, us, Montana St. You could make an argument they could jump us but we'd probably have to get pounded by Mont St since Idaho lost to them by 31.
No. 9 Villanova could end up at 10-2 (though maybe 9-3). Best wins at 10-2 would be over No. 16 Stony Brook and what would be a 9-2 Delaware. Lost to Maryland and by 28 to a 5-5 Maine.
No. 10 Montana would stay behind us unless they beat Montana St.
No. 11 Richmond would be 10-2. Losses to Virginia and 5-5 Wofford. Beat Delaware but avoided the other three ranked teams in the conference.
No. 12 SE Missouri St would be 10-2, losses to New Mexico St and 5-6 Lindenwood. Only ranked win is over No. 18 UT Martin.

A 10-2 UC Davis has a better resume than every single one of those teams except maybe Idaho. Put NDST, SDST, SD, and MSU in front of us and throw Idaho in there too. That means three of those teams listed above would have to be picked before us for us to be 9th.

Like you said, we've been burned by the committee in the past but our resume is also better this year. We played the other 3 top teams in the conference, winning two of them. No bad losses (like last year losing to EWU and NAU). If we beat Sac (not a sure thing of course!), I'd be shocked if we aren't in the top-8.

Richmond definitely. 8-2 but only 1 win over a team that would be ranked (Delaware is ineligible). There are 3 other ranked teams in their conference and Richmond doesn’t play any. Loss is at home to a 5-5 Wofford. South Dakota has soft wins also but they wouldn’t have a bad loss either.

Plus just last year, Idaho and Mont St were both 8-3 and got byes so it’s not like the third loss is a disqualifier.

Are they projecting South Dakota to lose their last 2? Because I would think there's no way South Dakota is 9 when they're currently 5th in the rankings and if they l lose to NDST, their 3 losses would be to Wisconsin (by 14) and 2 of the top 3 FCS teams (one of which was a 3-point OT road loss).

New STATS poll:

I'd put the Northern Iowa game up there just because it's a playoff game. Sure it was at home but that's not a sure thing in the playoffs (right Sac State?).

I would guess yes. We might lose to Sac but they’re not going to blow us out so the worst case 9-3 scenario is blown out by MSU and a tight loss to Sac. But we’d still have two wins over Idaho and Montana and two of the losses are to an FBS team and a top-2 team in FCS. I would think that’s a good enough resume to at least get a 16 seed which would be a home game.

The season: Even losing to MSU and beating sac gives us a resume for top 4 seed. — Kerberos

Probably depends on how we lose to MSU and if/how South Dakota loses to North Dakota St to end the year. But I would think regardless of how the Montana St game goes, if we beat Sac we're getting a bye.

Today was definitely a Prove It game and the Aggies most definitely did and then some. If they even lost a tight game I would have been sold on them being a solid team.

Montana St appears to be a next level Prove It game. If we go toe to toe with them, even if we lose, it's going to tell us a lot about this team.

LOL. They've got awfully short memories if this is the worst team in recent memory.
8-5 in 2022
A combined 27-19 with 1 playoff appearance from 2015-2018.

I would think we'd stay at 4 just because of the reputation South Dakota St has but who knows. We were 75 points behind them last week in the Stats poll and I would guess that margin will be closer next week.

Last time Montana lost by more than 7 points at home was...

2018 when we cooked them 49-21.

Unless I missed something, before that you have to go back to 2012 when they lost to Montana St by 9.

EDIT: Arbitrary margin of victory but the last time before 2018 they lost at home by 14+ points was in 2005 to Cal Poly. And again, unless I missed something, but besides the two losses to UCD, the last time Montana lost by 16+ points at home was in 1990 to Idaho.

Wife informed me today that she and our daughter will be out of town next week which means I'll be in attendance next week.

LET'S GO AGS!

We are good boys. We are good. That's a big boy win right there. Ain't no doubting this team now!

Also, next week is effectively a conference championship game. Someone can let me know if there are H2H tiebreakers or not but if so, whoever wins, wins the conference. If there aren't H2H tiebreakers for conf championships, whoever wins is guaranteed a share and can win outright by winning the last week.

Just run the ball there.

Montana with 72 yards on their first TD drive, and only 196 after.

Yeah, I would have been okay with another handoff there.