We probably should. Our losses are equivalent to those of South Dakota (both lost to an FBS team and a top-3 FCS team by 3 or less, though their loss was on the road). But they haven’t beaten anyone. Best win is either a 7-2 Drake or a 5-6 North Dakota. We’ve got 2 wins much better than that and we won at Southern Utah who is 6-5.

We’ve done our job to prove we’re #4. They get their shot next week.

Man it would be really nice to get the 4 seed and get that QF game at home.

Won't be until after the selection show since we might have to win next week to secure a bye. We'll be at home but they're not going to sell tickets until they know when the game will be since if we don't get a bye, the second game (if we win the first) will be on the road. As opposed to MSU who will get a bye regardless of their result next week.

The bit I watched of the MSU coach interview, he seemed much more measured. Talked about his team not always doing what they needed to do but credited our team for taking advantage. I'd put much more stock in that than what a college student would say. In reality, it's both. They let us back in the game but we took advantage. Sure, they didn't move the ball as well on offense late to kill the game off. Okay, we had the one big play on the second 4th quarter TD drive and we recovered the onside kick (this one admittedly fluky), but we also went 9 plays 81 yards and 6 plays 51 yards for a pair of TDs. Like the coach said, they gave us the opening and we took full advantage of it.

Ok, I believe. We are good, boys. We are good.

If you had told me before the 2018 playoffs that UCD won the National Title, I would have laughed in your face and I wouldn't have believed you. Not to say that team wasn't good, but I think our peak that year was QF or maybe the SF (though I would have liked our chances hosting Maine had we pulled the EWU game out).

This year feels different. Obviously odds are we're not going to win the title or even make the title game because of how good the Dakota St's/Montana St are, but we're right there. Pulled out the Idaho game at home (backup QB I think but whatever). Demolished Poly then won at EWU (even MSU only won there by 14). Beat Montana on the road by 16 when Montana hasn't lost by 16 at home in decades outside of 2018 when we also did it. Then go toe to toe with MSU. Yes they were better but I think we showed we belonged. Would it be the craziest thing if pull the 4 seed, win the R16 game, beat South Dakota at home and we're in the semis? I don't think so. And if you're in the semis, you're right there.

Man I'm pumped. I don't want to look past this season because this is a lot of fun. But next year will be telling. If Plough can put together a playoff caliber team next year, even if it's a road game in the first round, having to replace the QB and star RB, we could have something special on our hands.

Doubt it. NDSt's only loss is by 5 on the road vs. an 8-2 Colorado team. If our game had ended 30-8, then maybe. But that's still the clear top 5. Maybe you swap 1 and 2, maybe you swap 4 and 5. SDST is locked at No. 3 for now.

We're all Bison fans this week though. If we beat Sac and NDST beats SD, I bet we jump back to 4. SD is at home so it's a bit different than when they lost to SDST by 3 on the road. Now, if we beat Sac by, say, less than 10 and SD loses a nailbiter, maybe they stay in front of us (and probably rightfully so in that case).

But this week...

No. 6 Incarnate Word beat a 6-4 team by 7 on the road. Not moving up.
No. 7 Mercer got crushed by Bama. Not moving up.
No. 8 Idaho beat 3-8 Weber by 7 at home. Not moving up.
No. 9 Villanova lost to a 5-6 Monmouth. Moving way down.
No. 10 Montana beat 2-8 Portland St by 11 at home. Moving up 1 maybe by default.

I'd say outside of winning today, the results went about as well as possible for us. Beat Sac by literally any margin and I bet we're the 5 at worst. Put it on Sac and we're probably the 4 unless South Dakota beats NDSt. Man it would be really cool to get 2 home games at a minimum (assuming we win the first one).

Re: the 2-point. It's simple math. And I honestly don't think there's a difference between losing 30-14 and 30-15. And once he passed on the 2-point to make it 30-15, you're correct that there isn't really a point in going for it to make it 30-23 vs 30-22.

Let's say for simplicity sake that we have a 50% chance of completing a 2-point and a 100% chance of making an extra point. Your scenarios where you tie the game are:

2P Make + XP Make + XP Make = 0.5 * 1.0 * 1.0 = 50% chance of tying.
2P Miss + 2P Make + 2P Make = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 12.5% chance of tying
So by going for it on the first one, you have roughly a 62.5% chance of tying the game if you manage to get 3 TDs.

XP Make + XP Make + 2P Make = 1.0 * 1.0 * 0.5 = 50% chance of tying.

Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe they go for it and miss, then miss one of the following 2 and lose anyway. But it's all about what increases your chances of winning the most.

Additionally, if we're talking about what increases the chances of winning the game, rather than just tying it, by kicking the XP and just trying for 2 at the end, if they get it, they only go to OT. If you get the 2-point to make it 30-16, get a TD + XP to make it 30-23 and get a TD to make it 30-29, Plough would have then have had the option to say hey, let's go for the win right here. And the stats will tell you (multiple NFL teams have done this and North Dakota actually just did it today) that when you're down 14 late in the 4th quarter, you actually increase your chances of winning the game if on the first TD, you go for 2 to try to make it a 6 point game. The thought being that if you get the 2-point and get another TD, you kick the XP and win the game outright. If you don't get the 2-point, you can still get the next one and go to OT.

EDIT: And to be clear, that's not an extra 12.5% chance of tying the game. That's an extra 12.5% chance of tying the game IF we score 3 TDs. So Plough not going for it on the 1st TD (to make it 30-15) didn't drop our overall chances of tying the game by 12.5%. The actual number is much lower than that since you have to account for all of the other scenarios (like only scoring 1 TD or only scoring 2 TDs).

Yep, he couldn't have hit that any better than he did.

Supposed to rain on Friday and Saturday so a crappy field (unless Sac has turf) and bad weather could help keep things closer.

Plough messed up by not going for 2 when we made it 30-14. We had to at least get 1 2-point and by waiting until the end, it’s a 50-50 shot. If you go for it early and get it, you can just kick the XP the next two. If you don’t get it, you’re down 16 and you need 2 2-pt conversions. So going for it early increases your chances of tying the game if you do happen to score 3 TDs.

I bet we either stay at 4 or drop to 5 after that.

30-15 and 30-22 are both respectable scorelines. Much better than 30-8. If we get a TD here we’ll probably only drop to 5.

I enjoyed earlier they were trying to get a Go Ags chant going and they stared blaring music. Solid work!

Yeah, would have preferred two quick passes. Throw to Alan if you want to get him the ball.

I bet to 5 or 6. Lowest should be 7 since we should be ahead of Idaho.

Definitely not, though part of that could be forced errors by MSU just being better. If you have less time to throw and less space to run, you’re going to make more mistakes.

I think this one is over. We knows MSU was a level up and while I don’t think they’re 22 points better in 35 minutes of play, they’re definitely better.

They’re killing us with the out routes. Seemingly always open.

They’re getting pressure on the QB seemingly wherever they want to.

Would have been a nice play but that 3rd down throw was catchable.