46. UC Davis Aggies
Best case: The Aggies missed seven weeks of their season because of COVID-19-related issues. But once they got going, they were dominant in the Big West, where they have won five consecutive regular-season titles. UC Davis also played Oregon tough in early February. The confidence drawn from that game and the play of conference player of the year Cierra Hall helps the Aggies to a first-round stunner.
Worst case: Hall is the Aggies' best player, but she had plenty of help on the way to the Big Dance. Unfortunately, she doesn't get enough of it in San Antonio, and the idea of an upset disappears quickly.
17. Missouri State Lady Bears
Best case: On the 20th anniversary of Missouri State (then Southwest Missouri State) making the Final Four, the story almost writes itself. The Lady Bears shock the college basketball world and reach the Final Four again. This time there is no Jackie Stiles like in 2001. Instead, this Lady Bears team is well-balanced offensively with Brice Calip leading the way and excellent defensively -- Jasmine Franklin was MVC Defensive Player of the Year. But both teams had plenty of veterans, were No. 5 seeds, and both made it to the NCAA tournament's final weekend.
Worst case: The Lady Bears hadn't had a close game since mid-February and really could have used a Jackie Stiles for the big moments when they get one in Round 2. Missouri State comes up a couple of plays short and the careers of seniors Calip, Abby Hipp, Elle Ruffridge and Emily Gartner end sooner than anyone in Springfield had hoped.