I saw a lot of very insightful comments already..... not a lot for me to say that hasn’t alrady been said. Much to take away from this game that can help the Ags long term and get them ready for the playoffs.

Jake isn’t a super mobile QB. He needs a clean pocket to go through his reads and we all saw the result of what happened when the OL gets whipped up front. The OL is young and they’ll get better. But it’s gonna have to be a lot better for the playoffs. Most teams they will see gonna have DL’s like what they saw from the Eagles. Yesterday spiraled and I’d love to see these two meet again in the playoffs. (Ideally not in a slushy snow game)

Also it’s one game, these things happen over the course of a season. EWU was better yesterday but the Ags can play so much better. Get in the film room and get back to work. Gotta get focused for the Hornets.

Still 8-2. Beat Sac and go from there. Just hope the score yesterday doesn’t end up dinging them too much in the committee’s eyes. I think a seed is likely gone BUT with Kennesaw v Jax St / Weber vs Idaho st / Montana vs MSU - with the right outcomes UCD Could be right back in the picture. Elon took a loss yesterday. Jax v Kenny next week will knock one of them out of a seed. Samford can beat ETSU and give them a third loss. (On the road but Devlin Hodges is a beast). Towson/JMU game shouid be a fantastic. Loser takes a 4th loss. There are 6-7 BIG games next week that will really affect seeding.

Ags better find a way to keep this reasonably close bc if Weber doesn’t lose they’ll be playing on thanksgiving weekend. Blowout won’t help the cause.

EWU is just better so far. We knew their offense was going to score. But their D Has caused all sorts of issue for the Ags. Yeah Ags prob going to end up w 500 yards of offense (which is impressive) but they’ve made Jake really uncomfortable. This OL will need to play DRAMTICALLY better to compete in the playoffs.

Poor decision. You can’t kick FG’s in this game and trying a 50 yarder in the freezing cold. Man. Head scratching. Go for it. And EWU going to make them pay.

Maier getting less time than normal. The EWU front doing a pretty good job. Lots of short passes. Gonna have to find a way to give him time. Roll him out. Run some more screens etc. Keep running it it’s been pretty successful but gotta ditch the jet sweeps those were just 3 plays wasted.

Wow are you kidding me. What a jolt of life.

EWU D is pretty damn good. Question answered. Whipping the UCD OL. Now you gotta adjust. GOTTA get to half down 11 and that would be amazing considering what we just saw.

obvious here but this is a must stop drive or this is going to be a boat race. Team looks deflated.

Have been watching the Kennesaw game this morning they have their hands full leading 17-14 at half as 25 point favs. This is their first true halfway decent competition this year. They trailed but found their way in the 2nd. Interested to see if they pull away or are in a game. Needless to say a loss here by Kenny would help the Ags immensely win or lose today.

Yup, agree. Was
Surprised that a national writer chose that angle around the UCD schedule when they have a top 5 FCS resume to date (eye test, stats, Massey, sagarin all back this up) and you could put a lot of holes in the EWU resume, which was ignored for the narrative.

Anyway I’ve gone too long about this - can anyone see I miss the write ups/analysis? Haha.

(Home w my sick 3 year old today so too much time on my hands)

Also, UCD has 9th toughest SOS in FCS, while EWU 18th.

Acorrding to Massey UCD will be the 2nd best D EWU has faced.

Chase is a good dude and those guys do a tremendous job covering FCS.

I dont take umbridge with the more desperate team or that they could win or even win by DD. He's making a prediction. I used to make them all the time and was wrong, alot. I think the larger issue is the as you try to break down a game and make a prediction and predicate it on "UCD doesn't have any good wins" is funny. It's one side of the story to fit the narrative. Basically ignoring the fact that EWU's resume is terrible. Who have the beaten? Anyone? Seriously?

Sure, SJSU is a bad FBS BUT the Spartans would be favored by 2 over Montana St on a neutral, whom I'm assuming he would identify as EWU's best win. How about Montana? They would be a 3 point fav right now over MSU. And that "second tier" idaho St team, well they would be a 5 point favorite over Montana St. In fact, SJSU, Montana, and Idaho St would be favored over every team that EWU has beaten this year. So if Davis has beaten nobody impressive, what does that say about EWU? (Well, we didnt get to hear about that....) WE jsut assume since they are name brand that they must be good.

I already had my commentary about the defense everyone is raving about nationally as being SO good.

https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2018-week-11-predictions-ewu-davis-cici

I chose not to comment on the first prediction (nothing to do with EWU winning, which is a very real possibility) just the other stuff in there. Gave me a good laugh.

26.5 hours. GO AGS.

Yeah I poked fun at it earlier but they’ll get 11k and it will be loud but will pale in compare to what they saw at Wash Grizz. (Basically we shouid not see any false starts bc of noise is my guess). But the home crowd should be strong.

And as for the compare vs Montana d/similar talent/athletes — two ways to look at this. The grizz shut down UCD FH. Think it was like 100 yards. (Part of that was UM controlling ball, Part was false starts putting them in long to go distances, Part execution). Then 400 yards in second half and complete ownership was
Just dominant.

Worth noting the game against Weber was EB first start and against a D that is easily the best D in the conference and would be a top 5 FCS D for me. I think he was a little more limited that game facing a D that is lights out. Since that game, the offense more closely resembles their normal offense with lots of passing but I mentioned the adjustments in a previous post.

EWU D is improved but I'm not sure they are the best D UCD has faced at the FCS level. EWU is better then NAU but NAU has the best secondary the Aggies will face all season. IMO, EWU defensive talent level is very similar to that of Montana. (This is where I wish could get my hands on some advanced defensive statistics). Yeah the surface statistics show the EWU allows 50 YPG less than the Grizz but in no way does that adjust for SOS. The Grizz have played 5 teams in the top 50 in total offense and two teams from the Missouri Valley (both top 25 caliber teams)...

Lets look at who EWU has played outside of Wazzou:
Central Wash: D2
NAU: Star Qb Cookus got hurt early in game, faced backup with no prep
Cal Poly: very down year
Montana St: 75th total Offense
Southern Utah: highest ranked offense yardage wise on schedule at 24th. EWU faced their 2nd string QB, who made his FIRST start of the year against EWU. SUU is now on their 3rd QB this year.
Weber St: 106th in total offense
Idaho: awful year for the vandals, who have gone with mainly a two QB systems b/c neither are good.
No Colorado: Another backup Qb played

Again, this is not to poo poo the EWU defense but the idea they have proven to be dramatically better than last year is a result of who they have played - bad offense and backup QB's. This will be their first real test of an offense than hum. We will find out just how good they are this week. Jury still out for me.

The biggest game thing is not something Hawk wants his team worrying about (rightfully so..)but for us fans, it really is fun to be having these conversations. I love reading the banter on the game from everyone, really cool. The reality is no matter how much they try to downplay it this is the biggest game in the programs since the days of the D2 playoffs. (conference title, playoff seeding, home game in the playoffs, a bye, #2 seed... all sorts of things......) And that's okay to say (for us fans) - its exciting, it means the program is progressing and taking steps forward. Each of these next few games will take on some sort of new significance for the program. Pretty cool stuff. I know I'll be up at the Causeway next week with quite a few alums, many of whom played on some of the 98-01 teams. I cant wait.

In other (way more important news): my wife told me we have a kids bday party across the street to attend at 230 (with my two young sons). I told her I'll be there around 4! ;)

Here's the hero sports piece: https://herosports.com/fcs/football-ewu-uc-davis-playoff-seed-bzbz

*one of the distinctive features of being an FCS fan is information is scarce***. haha

***Unless you belong to the MVFC or reside in Montana or the Dakotas.

Hero sports had an article that referred to what I mentioned earlier - if UCD loses and Weber wins out, UCD could easily be left out with no seed and playing thanksgiving weekend. Would suck, but a potential reality (not saying a for sure, but something that has to be considered). Win removes any of this talk. A loss and Aggie fans become big Idaho St fans. (other results could certainly help like Southland being a complete disaster).

I've broken this game down to some degree in an earlier post but I agree that EWU is not going to change it identity because they are playing UCD. They've already adapted their offense as much as they are going to for EB. FWIW, the run pass ratio with Gubrud was 51% run/49% pass. With EB it's been 50%. Yeah lots of blowouts in there but i think the changes twofold:
1. More RPO/Wildcat that would allow EB to carry use his legs a bit more
2. Generally short passes - slow it down for him, make it easy. But still work at a fast pace.

UCD has to keep them off schedule (thanks master of the obvious!). Force this kid to have to make plays more than a swing pass, quick screen etc. Force him to read his progressions and make plays down the field. You do that and he will make mistakes.

Regarding run defense: Hard to say without talking to coaches (or rewatching every game in depth) and trying to speculate would be just that.... could be better teams? Better schemes? Could be be wearing down a little? (9th game vs 2nd—- players a little more knicked up).?

RiverAggie mentioned red zone d being 1st in conference & that’s a great point. UCD isn’t going to completely stop EWU, going to come down to a few key plays. Bend but don’t break is just fine in a game like this if you can’t completely shut them down. Anytime you can make them settle for 3 is huge. (0 is even better. Haha). I do look forward to what sort of looks they give the kid. Take away the run is half the battle. UCD 100% wants to put this game on Barriere arm to have to make plays.

Having a game like Montana in the rear view
Is big here imo. They have a lot to take away from that - dealing w adversity, penalties, noise, etc and still finding a way to come back and win. The inferno (11k) will be like a library compared to wash grizz stadium (25k). I kid, sort of...

Also, as I figured EWU opened a 5 Point favorite. I immediately bet UCD +5 as I made it a 3 Point game and that’s enough of an edge for me to bet. The line is down to a pick now but that will go back toward 3/4 as Saturday approaches.

Saturday feels so far away.

I agree in general (esp w last weekend’s results) but cant say that for sure. It will matter what others teams do.....If other teams keep losing them 9-2 gets them a 6-8 seed bc of the landscape of FCS. JMU & Wofford lost second FCS game. Elon, Kenny, Delaware all have tough schedules left. NDSU/SDSU/EWU would be top 4. Going to be a fun two weeks. The CAA has been so fun this year
And they’ll prob all keep
Beating each other up so I expect at least one of Elon/Delaware
To stumble based on schedules.

Got a chance to watch most of the first half of EWU/UNC (now have seen two games since Barriere took over).

First off, kid is a sophomore, is a player and gonna be an issue for the next two years.

Eagles mainly ran 4 wide, 1 back as their base all first half. At some points they went to a formation with TE or FB but mainly ran the 4/1. Everything right now is real quick/easy for Barriere. Lots of swing passes, screens, quick slant, etc. Basically looking to get the ball out of his hands quickly. With the 4 wide, defense is spread out and also where the Eagles get very dangerous running the ball. They are running some RPO /read option stuff where the can hand it to Custer or Barriere can keep it.

The offense they are running is perfect for the kid - forces him to get rid of ball quickly and uses his speed/skill to run with it. He can also save a play if things aren't open. They even ran a designed QB run where QB took snap and just broke left with pulling lineman.

I will say when the first option isnt open there was a little bit of indecisiveness and that's where he can get himself in trouble. He only threw downfield (more than 10 yards) a couple times in FH - one was a busted coverage to a wide open guy on the first or second play, then second was him scrambling around trying to make a play and threw a pick. Aggies will have to put him in situations where he has to look downfield. (3rd and long) If Eagles stay on schedule, lots of options with talented WR's, a good back, and an athlete at QB.

UCD has a better defense than last year and last year Gubrud threw all over them but the Ags completely took away the run. If they can do that again this year, they'll be in good shape. But clearly the run game more dangerous with EB back there. UCD giving up 3.8 per carry, which is top 40 in terms of YPC. That said, was much stronger first 5 games vs last 4 games. (3.0 pc vs 4.4 pc). EWU has the #1 offense in the nation for a reason - stopping them gonna be a big task.

On the other side, EWU wants you to believe they have a dramatically improved defense - but do they?
The best offense they played was Southern Utah 27th, then Cal Poly 49, then NAU at 55th, Idaho 69th, UNC 72nd, etc, etc. The best offense they played was ?? (would have been NAU if Cookus didnt hurt very early in this game?). Still, YPP (a great indicator of a team success was 5.4, the same amount Wash St rang up against EWU). FWIW, Davis has had over 5.4 YPP in every game except Stanford, avg over 6). Maybe this is a much better defense but I dont see anything that would tell me that based on who they've played. UCD going to be by far the best offense they've played all year. There isnt a DB that will be able to check Doss (reminder: he had his career high last year with 205 yard vs EWU) and if they want to roll coverage Harrell is the difference this year having a dominant #2 along with an all conference TE.It all works b/c Maier makes great decision with pinpoint accuracy.

I dont see anyway this game isnt played in the high 30's/low 40's. I expect a total for the game to be set in the high 70's - maybe even an 80. Need to play a clean game - turnovers, penalties, special team. The margin for error is slim here as i think these teams are nearly identical. They get the home game which is big. However, I would feel pretty good about about Hawk as the coach (big advantage over Best) as well as UCD resiliency (Idaho St, Montana) but clearly the Eagles arent without their stuff too losing Gubrud.

Damn, this is gonna be a hell of a game.