• Toke69
    485
    Cal State Northridge heads into its third season under coach, Andy Newman, after setting a school record with 22 wins last season. Clearly, Coach Newman has done an excellent job of turning the Matadors around after a miserable 2022-23 season in which they went 7-25. Seemingly a victim of his own success, the coach lost four starters retaining only forward Mahmoud Fofana, plus four other lettermen. As might be expected, they do not seem to be doing as well this season.

    Northridge’s record is a bit misleading as they have played a relatively weak schedule. Their only opponent of note was 11-2 Stanford, to whom they lost but played well, leading the Cardinal at the half. In conference they are 1-1 having lost to UCI and downing Cal State Bakersfield. As with Seattle, CSUN played a common opponent of the Ags in Idaho State where they lost in SoCal 82-50. That seems to bode well, but it’s dangerous making too much of such comparisons.

    Fofana, an original Newman recruit, is 6’6”and brings a good balance of scoring, rebounding and defense to his game. He hits field goals at the rate of 56%, averages 6.9 rpg. and had 17 steals this season, but is no threat from 3 (20%). The only other returning player is bench guard Jordan Brinson. The rest of the roster consists of a lot of transfers including two community college transfers. Among the latter, a significant addition has been Davius Loury , who came all the way from Illinois and has earned a starting role. The 6’ 7” forward has the second highest 3-point shooting percentage on the team. Coming from even further away in Germany is center Aleks Szymczyk who does not start but brings an imposing 7’ 0” presence in his 11+ minutes per game.

    The 3-guard backcourt consists of Josiah Davis at the point plus Larry Hughes II and Joshua O’Garro, who at 6’6” scores 13.8 ppg. and nearly 10 rpg, is more like a forward. The other off guard is Joisah Davis. They are, respectively transfers from Niagara, St. Louis and Texas State. Although Davis scores at a rate of over 13 ppg, he is a true point guard, distributing 6 apg., while Hughes is the leading scorer (18.4 ppg) who has made 44 out of 103 treys so far this season. It is worth noting that he was 0 for 0 at Stanford. The Matadors strength is on the boards where they yank down over 42 rpg. Compare that to the Ags 31 rpg. If this team has a weakness, it is from the foul line where only two of the regular players hits over 70% from there. The Aggies are likely to be favored, but this will not be an easy win.
  • agalum
    518

    Awesome write up. Thanks for doing this.
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.6k
    Excellent summary of the Matadors. You could be a sports columnist, Toke!
  • DrMike
    1.1k
    We will be rolling out the Tahoe Blue uniforms for this one (not sure about Saturday) -> still a little disappointed we didn't wear them vs. Reno!
  • AggieFinn
    838


    vs. Reno would've felt more appropriate!
  • Toke69
    485
    ESPN is giving us a 61.1% chance of winning. I won't be able to focus much on this one as my daughter and her family are with us from Wisconsin through Jan. 1.
  • DrMike
    1.1k
    School is out, steady rain forecast and FBS quarterfinals…..hope we break 1000 fans tomorrow
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.6k
    Not sure why the Big West needed to schedule a game on New Year's Day.
  • DrMike
    1.1k
    we started with same week last year, with Thursday falling in the 2nd. With the number of teams and trips to Hawaii to work in, it seems like they have to ‘start’ now to get games in before the tournament. Thankfully they scheduled the first week back in early December or we’d have games in late December snd first week of the new year.

    We seem to be 4-5 point favorites with 67% probability for a win. They swept us last year.
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.6k
    Well, unfortunately, we won't be going to the game today. We have been hosting an annual, New Year's Eve dinner party for many years. We do a lot of the clean up after the last guests leave so we don't have to face a big mess of dishes in the morning and, last night, that was 1:30 a.m. So we didn't get to bed until 3 and now my wife feels like she's coming down with a cold too. We'll watch the game later on ESPN+. Go Ags!!
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.6k
    Gauchodan, who writes a Substack column about Big West basketball, found this interesting statistic indicating an area we need to improve. The Ags are ranked #18 in the country in "Non-Steal Turnover Percentage which is this:

    Non-steal turnover percentage (NST%) in basketball is a key advanced stat measuring the percentage of a team's possessions that end in a turnover not caused by a steal, like traveling, bad passes (out of bounds, to the opponent), offensive fouls, or shot clock violations, showing how often the offense messes up on its own. It isolates offensive mistakes from defensive takeaways, indicating offensive efficiency, ball control, and decision-making by focusing on "giveaways" rather than opponent "takeaways".
  • Toke69
    485
    In other words, the Ags have a high level of unforced errors?
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.6k
    Yes, unforced offensive turnovers that are not defensive takeaways.
  • DrMike
    1.1k
    so, is 18 good? Like golf, a lower number is better?
  • Toke69
    485
    I started watching in time to see Sevilla bury a couple of 3s to lead the Ags in pulling away. Looks good so far.
  • Toke69
    485
    38-35 Aggies at the half. The only concern is with the rebounding margin so far, but that's not a surprise given the Matadors strength in that area. If the Aggies can keep making 3s at a high rate, this game should be a W.

    The arena is pretty empty.
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