Drake upsets Tarleton?

I have no idea what Sagarin’s eigenvector analysis is, and he ain’t sayin, but that method comes up with SEMO favored while his regular analysis has Illinois State favored. So perhaps it will be a competitive game.
I don’t have much confidence the SEMO will win but that is entirely because I watched the first third of their last game, in which they looked horrible. They came back to make a respectable score though.

I like the match-up between NAU and ACU. Interested to see how Texas/OK talent stacks against CA/AZ talent.

Illinois State is starting to roll that run game. They have a decent offensive line and three separate, yet different weapons at RB. The running game is big in the playoffs, the winter months, if you can't consistently grind it for 4-5 yards, it's tough to control the game.

Well, to be fair, NAU does have 11 players from FL/TX/OK, as well as talent from Colorado, IL, PA, OH, a Virginian, a Nigerian and a German. They are definitely stocked with Arizona guys and California guys for the most part however.

ACU is certainly loaded with Texas talent, but they too, recruit from many different states, seeing CA, MN, LA, FL, AL, IA, OH and Germany on their roster as well.

I thought last year they brought in something like 20-25 transfer portal guys.

That's a crazy amount of new guys to corral in camp!

I'll take a stab at this week's games
Tennessee Martin @ #16 New Hampshire: UT Martin 23 - New Hampshire 17
Lehigh @ #9 Richmond: Richmond: Richmond 40 - Lehigh 20
#12 Illinois State @ SE Missouri State: Illinois State 33 - SEMO 31
Drake @ #13 Tarleton State: Tarleton State 34 - Drake 13
Northern Arizona @ #15 Abilene Christian: ACU 24 - NAU 27
Central Connecticut State @ #10 Rhode Island: CCSU 31 - URI 30
Eastern Kentucky @ #11 Villanova: EKU 17 - Nova 38
Tennessee State @ #14 Montana: TSU 10 - Griz 38

Crediting Montana’s home field with 18 points?

pretty good picks but I think Rhode Island wins.

I think URI is a little overrated, had to shake up the First Round somehow.

I looked at Tennessee State's overall results - and am making a jump prediction, that they will fold. The matchup is incredibly favorable for Montana by the way.