The Big West teams will start to face each other on Dec. 29. As of this writing, it is clear that there are five teams who are most likely to compete for the Bug West title: UCSB, Hawai`i, UCI and UCD.
Irvine has the highest Sagarin rating at 104, but they are 7-5 and have lost to two teams that UCSB beat, Pepperdine and Fresno State. On the other hand, they defeated then #21 Oregon up in Eugene. This chat group seems to favor the Anteaters. Maybe it’s because they have a deep, veteran team coming off a winning season good for 4th last year. They did lose Collin Welp, but added some solid transfers in Pierre Crockrell II, from UOP and Devin Tillis from UNLV.
The Gauchos have the best record at 9-2, but their schedule has not been that tough. They did pick up a key transfer from Cal, Andre Kelly, who is their leading rebounder. UCS Also returns Miles Norris and Ajay Mitchell. They have not played a single team from a power conference, unless one thinks the WCC is a power conference, and their two losses come to a weak Northern Arizona team but a strong Duquesne.
Hawai`i has the next best record at 6-3 but have yet to play 3 more games in the 8-team Diamond Head Classic this week. The Rainbows will open against Pepperdine, but the field is full of Power 5 teams, including solid Utah State and Iona teams. I’ll have more to say about Hawai`i before the game in which they host UCD next week.
UCR is a team to watch. They started well at 5-2 but have lost 3 of their last 5. Still they beat Portland on Thursday night and Sagarin rates them above the Aggies.
None of the other teams have winning records, but 5-6 Cal Poly might be tougher than expected, losing to a good Washington squad by only 6 points up in Seattle. The Beach and CSU Fullerton have the same 6-6 records and UCSD is 5-7 with a win over Cal that is no longer a surprise. CSU Bakersfield is 4-7 against a weak schedule. CSUN brings up the rear at 3-8 even though they defeated San Diego on the same day that Big West schools went 3-0 against WCC teams. The Matadors only other victories were over non-NCA Div. 1 schools. On Dec. 22, three Big West schools took on and defeated three WCC schools. Time to play Gonzaga!
It is worth noting that Sac State has played 5 Big West teams, losing to UC Davis, CSU Fullerton and Hawai`i while downing UCSD and Long Beach State.
After watching Hawai'i beat 3 very good teams, including one Pac-12 and one Big12 school, I need to revise what I wrote above. I don't see think any team in the Big West is better than Hawai`i. A major qualifier is that Hawai`i has not played a single game away from Honolulu and they are notorious for folding on the road. I can see them losing 4-6 games to the UC schools plus the Beach.
I think that Hawaii, UCSB and Irvine are the odds on bets to be the front runners at this point for sure. Hawaii looked very good winning 3 tough games in their latest tournament. They haven't played away from home yet and, like Toke noted, they generally don't play nearly as well on the road.
At this point, I think we are a middle of the pack team. We have had stretches of brilliance that have given us glimpses of just how good we can be but we haven't been able to sustain that excellent level of play throughout the game. We've let big leads slip away too often which has turned potential routs into close wins or loses and that's a big concern. We've also had several games where our 3 point shooting and FT's were shockingly poor. The FT shooting has improved of late but the 3 point shooting is still not as good as it needs to be for us to be a more dangerous offensive team.
As with any Jim Les team, we thrive on defense and, when we are locked in, we can be very good. Our rebounding has been very good this year also despite us not having great size. I like how hard we play and how we can hang in there with bigger, physical teams too. We're not a timid team; we'll go nose to nose with anyone.
Early in the season, I thought that our depth would be a great benefit of this team and, although we're getting some good defensive minutes from a few players, we aren't seeing much scoring from our bench. I hope that improves in conference play.
I like the overall makeup of this Aggie team and I think we've yet to play our best basketball consistently. We need to be one of the best defensive teams in the league to make things tough for those teams who rely heavily on their offensive ability to win. Our tough defense can keep us within striking distance against those kind of teams when we go through periods of offensive drought.
Overall, I think we're capable of being up there competing with the top BW teams but it won't be easy. It will be a dogfight for us but we are certainly capable of putting up a good fight.
It will be good when (hopefully soon) we get Bora and Mani back. Both could provide some interior depth, which will be needed as we battle some of the bigger teams in the BW.