I think you're exactly right.

Yesterday was a big deal for UC Davis. All the "right" teams lost leaving us only a game behind third place. A split on the road next week would mean the Ags finish 11-9. A 6 way tie would be possible!
Here's the remaining schedules for "The 5":

UCSD: at Fullerton and UCSB
CSUN: at Bakersfield, home v. Fullerton
UCSB: home v. UCSD
Fullerton: home v. UCSD, at CSUN
Cal Poly: at UCI, home v. Bakersfield

For what it's worth, here are the Big West tiebreaker rules:





If none of the above work, the seed is determined by a coin toss.

I apologize for all the typos in my post last night. I could blame it on my dyslexic dementia, but the truth is, it was distress from the way the Hawai`i game ended. I've corrected it (I think).

No surprises here, but it's nowhere good for the Aggies, who are in danger of falling all the way to the 8 seed if Cal Poly keeps winning. A 4 seed is still possible especially if the Ags can tie with UCSB over whom they have the tiebreaker. Unfortunately, a more likely outcome is a 5 seed as all of the teams ahead of us play each other and both UCSD and Fullerton have a chance to get to 12 wins while UCD will have to beat Irvine down in SoCal.

We obviously lost this one in the first half. You could argue that Hawai`i won it by hitting all those 3s or that the Ags lost it by turning the ball over 12 times. It was both of those things together as UCD outscored Hawai`i when they limited the turnovers and played better defense. They still had issues as some of the freshmen lost their composure. Wilson had a gret game but he was trying to do it all by himself in the second half. This one really hurt.

They're injured.

Scott and Coach Simpson have made it pretty clear what the problem is. Hawai`i is hitting an uncharacteristic number of 3s and the Ags are turning the ball over to an embarrassing extent. My question is WHY all those sloppy passes?! Are the guys putting too much pressure on themselves. They need to figure it out or this is going to be a big L.

No Cooper. No Stokes.

Aggies have won six straight home games against Hawaii.

The Honolulu paper made note of Nils Cooper, so I assume he's healthy?

As recently as 2012, before they joined the Big West, Hawai'i was in the WAC with such schools as Boise State, Nevada and UNLV. Going back to 1999, the WAC also included Wyoming, Air Force, BYU and Colorado State. They were competitive back then and fans here thought Hawai`i was stepping down and would dominate in the Big West. Not so much.

In regard for the Aggies chances of getting a four seed the final schedules of Fullerton and UCBS:

Fullerton: Hawai`i, UCSD, @CSUN
UCSB: UCR, @UCI, UCSD

Looks like we'll be rooting for the Tritons (who are only a half game behind UCD), at least against Fullerton and Santa Barbara, but they also play Cal Poly and Bakersfield at home.

Saturday's games have shaken up the Big West, with UCI losing to UCSD and CSUN edging the Beach, those two teams are in a 3-way tie for first with Hawai'i which slipped past UCSB in OT. UC Davis is in a three way tie for fourth with UCSB and Fullerton only 1.5 games behind the leaders. UCSD is only another half game behind. Thus, any of seven teams could wind up at the top, especially with Irvine and Hawai`i struggling lately. Here are the game results.

Two points of interest about the game. First, the Aggies depth really helped in that the fouls were more distributed, whereas UCR had two players foul out and three of them had 4 fouls at game's end. Second it was interesting how for both teams, for both free throw and field goal percentage showed regressions to the mean. The law of averages shall not be broken.

Closer than it should have been, but a second game with a whole of fouls. A combined 98 fouls called in SoCal. Sevilla really came through in the clutch.

Hope Stokes is okay.

Some very questionable shot selections by the Ags. As the game gets tight they're rushing to put the ball up like they did at Fullerton.

Sloppy play from both teams.

Neither team is shooting well from the field. UCD at 38% but UCR at an atrocious 26%. Odds are that both teams will improve in the second half, but let's not allow the highlanders to score 50+.