When looking at vaccines administered as a percentage, the US is 4th in the world, nationally at about 2.3 doses per 100 people. Israel leads by far at 19 per 100 with UAE and Bahrain running up. Worth looking at what they are doing, though they are more culturally homogenous countries with more centrally administered governments. Curious if Israel has seen differences in health outcomes with the Palestinian minority like we have with some minority groups here. The suggestion of having appointments for the priority groups with an unrestricted "standby line" for leftover doses seems workable. I think NY has strict penalties for out-of-order administration because initially the rich and powerful were managing to sneak into nursing homes to cut the line. That said, age is like the easiest criteria to filter people by because it is an easily verifiable number. For the following groups of essential workers, eligibility will be very difficult to ascertain unless the shots are given in the workplace.

As to previous comments, I'm not sure any governors are going to get passing grades. Some mistakes were made in the fog of war, others are far less excusable. Seemingly the planning and communication for vaccine distribution is unacceptably incomplete. My guess is that states were distracted managing disease prevention efforts in open conflict with local interests after the emergency economic backstops were allowed to expire. In NY it was the nursing home lobby, in FL it was the restaurant lobby, and in CA it was the open rebellion from Orange, San Diego and parts of LA County.

Here is a good tracker on vaccine distribution for anyone interested. Distribution started accelerating a few days ago, but the acceleration is not consistent across states - CA has a more consistent trendline than some states that achieved big jumps.

Consider this for context, the CDC says about 52% of Americans take the flu shot every year. And it is usually a drama-free experience without much wait at a pharmacy, doctors office, or workplace event. This proves we have the injection capacity for a mass vaccination over a couple months time, because we literally do it every year. To some degree there are handling challenges with the temperature of this vaccine. But it seems the biggest challenge is managing the patient side of the scarcity equation in a supply/demand mismatch. Fundamentally, do you give the vaccine to those who want it most or need it most? Much faster to give it all out to the wants because they will jump railings to cut to the front of the line. The same people do it at Six Flags and the grocery store deli. In this case, the most urgent needs tend to be harder people to reach in society and trying to get to them is only made harder by the din of the wants pounding on the doors, so to speak. It is a very valid question as to how much time you invest chasing the hard to reach people in the name of "health equity" before moving on. In FL and TX, they weren't done with healthcare workers yet but the governors were dissatisfied with the percentage optics so they opened it to everyone 65+, without telling the counties prior to going going live to the press. It's pandemonium with limited doses available at fragmented hospitals, health departments, and pharmacies and seniors racing all over town to chase them. At the end of the day, the seniors being successful are those who are plugged in to social media and spry enough to hop in the DeVille and peel out on a moment's notice. The seniors who aren't online, don't drive much, and can't stand for long periods are left behind. And then at the events, ineligible cops and politicians' spouses are showing up and getting it because exasperated health workers say it takes too much time to send them packing when they know these are people who will make a scene.

There there is the 48% problem. The flu shot is low/no cost, widely available, and well proven -- and 48% don't bother. For example sake, let's assume the 52% of people who take the flu shot are relatively easy to convince to take the COVID vaccine, but we really need 70-90% participation. We need a massive communication campaign now to convince the balance. And probably other motivations like threatening to deny school entry or delay tax refunds to anti-vaxxers.

If we want to call it a local failure, then it is a local failure nearly everywhere. Most of the states have only administered 20-40% of their stock, and while CA is far from leading, it isn't last either. Also fair to point out CA has administered more individual doses than any other state. In general, New England, Appalachia, and Big Sky country are a little above the curve, while the west, south, and Great Lakes are below. West Virginia and North Dakota are outliers that lead the nation with >60% administered. Unless Dr. Strange has taken us to a parallel universe where WV leads the world in health, I would posit that with the resources at hand the rollout is bound to go better in states with small, homogenous populations centered in relatively few geographic locations.

I was perhaps slightly hesitant in October when the vaccine seemed like a political football being launched as a hail mary. Since then I have become much more confident as I have learned about how an mRNA vaccine works. I am not a biologist or doctor, but since it cannot give you Covid and does not contain live or dead virus, it seems like the worst case is that it just doesn't work or fades over time. There are risk/benefit tradeoffs with any medical treatment, but given how deadly the virus is, I believe benefit outweighs risk, at least for me. I think acute treatment chemical drugs being used on an emergency basis without real control/variable testing are a larger risk that I would rather avoid relying on. There are also a few among us who cannot take vaccines (immune disease, organ transplant, etc.) and their safety relies on able-bodied people like me being vaccinated, a social responsibility I take seriously.

Here's what I am hearing from my friends in health care (not specific to CA, but more national in nature) - the trouble isn't necessarily that the people doing the injections are overwhelmed, it is a crisis of getting the right people at the right time to the administration location. As it turns out, there is no master list of who falls into the different priority groups, where they are, and how to contact them. And there is a moderate rate of no-shows or people who decline, leading to a chaotic footrace to get alternate recipients to a particular site before doses spoil. While I agree Newsom has spent too much time at the French Laundry, I do not think states and counties turned out to have the expertise or resources needed and the varied approaches have caused confusion, especially in border areas where people are hearing info from multiple jurisdictions. Since the chief executive was so intent on involving the military, it would have made sense to spend the last few months registering people with a federal selective service type system so they could be filtered into priority groups and then called by draft numbers to report as vaccine doses were available.

Interesting politics. Dr. Sisson only came to Yolo County in September, a few days after Placer County fired her for her strictness. So the Yolo board knew who they were hiring and it appears intentional. Disappointing to basketball fans, but it does not appear to be Gary May’s priority to change the county’s mind on this as I think the county and university historically do get along. In real terms I’m not even sure how much enforcement jurisdiction the county has on UC property.

Can confirm FL is a hot mess right now. DeSantis has made everything from social distancing to vaccine distribution up to counties to solve, so 67 uncoordinated approaches made really complicated in multi-county metro areas where the counties aren’t on speaking terms. FL has substantially more hospital beds per capita than CA and they are 91% full, but the empty beds are concentrated in the counties taking COVID more seriously. And just because the tourist economy is open doesn’t mean it’s working. The money tourists are from conventions, the Northeast, Canada, UK, and Brazil. They can’t or won’t come now, so it’s just locals using discount tickets. In the race to reopen and chase the small dollar, he’s only prolonged the big dollars staying away. There’s a lot of nuance that doesn’t make the national media, but FL is definitely not a success story in health or economic terms.

It might be hard to pin the spike on any one thing. It may well be the confluence of Halloween, election and fallout, thanksgiving, college campuses, compressed wedding season, cooler weather, start of Christmas event/shopping season, restaurants/bars reopening to pent up demand, and increased defiance from local governments and sheriffs regarding enforcement of state orders. All in about a 45 day period.

I was talking to Mrs. Fugawe last night about my personal threshold to return to unmodified normal times activity. I think my conditions are receiving the vaccine and substantially reduced community spread in my area. If things go right over the next few months, I think it could be as early as this summer leading to a fairly normal football season.

I was listening to an epidemiologist on the radio saying that the effectiveness of the vaccines may be reliant on a quick strike deployment to tamp it out, and that a slow deployment will put pressure on the virus to mutate and give it time and hosts to do so. Right now we are distributing a million doses a week but need to be distributing 2 million per day. He was also saying that we think the vaccine has a ramp up time to effectiveness in a person possibly of a couple months and we don’t know if vaccinated people can still spread it, which means social distance and masks may need to be a thing for vaccinated people until most people are vaccinated or recovered. Estimates for achieving herd immunity range from 65-95%, so perhaps for the public will make it their New Years resolution to listen to doctors and scientists and the politicians make it theirs to stop bickering and do their job.

The order includes but is not limited to collegiate. There’s also Rivercats operations and at least used to be groups doing “private” youth sports camps and adult beer leagues, mainly in West Sac as I remember. I mean, maybe this was pointed at Aggie hoops, but possible it was really to manage one of those other groups.

UCD and city of Davis have probably one of the best testing and health campaigns in the country and results to show for it, but the situation is much different in Woodland and West Sac. Perhaps the county order was written with those communities in mind more so than Davis. Woodland and Davis have smallish hospitals, I don’t think West Sac has one, which leaves the county as a whole pretty reliant on hospitals in Sacramento county, which hasn’t kept its own porch clean, not to mention the large geographical area to the north and east that maybe aren’t taking things so seriously but are also competing for Sacramento hospital beds. Just hypothesizing the county’s thought process.

I’m in design and construction (and sometimes operations) of sports and leisure venues, so arenas, hotels, convention halls, attractions, themed restaurants, class A retail - you know all the places people can’t go right now. On the side, I own an event company, mainly weddings and such, which my state says I can operate as usual, but I have elected to cancel my contracts because I think weddings and parties are the biggest problem we have. Some of my competitors disagree and are happy to take the paycheck now, prolong this for everyone, and then have the nerve to point at me and say I’m dragging the economy down. Oy.

As to what businesses are essential, you are right about both over and under reactions. Most retail can operate with mask and capacity restrictions and still be profitable. Your hypothetical bookshop was unlikely to be packed anyway so it doesn’t make as much sense to close it, nor does the owner have a huge incentive to flaunt the rules. By virtue, bars and restaurant dining rooms are a bad idea, but most of them struggle economically with takeout only because their business model relies on tips as wages and it turns out in many cases the food and drink isn’t objectively good on its own; we go there for an experience. For carry out, the wings at BWW aren’t really worth twice the cost of fast food wings and the industry is desperate for us to not notice it all comes out of the same Sysco freezer bag. I think that’s part of why the restaurant lobby is so loud. In theory, a hair salon could operate in relative safety if it was one customer at a time, masks, and limited to cut and wash. In practice, that isn’t profitable because the business model is built around having multiple color blowouts going on. So salon owners allowed to open have a huge incentive to fudge the rules and ultimately some will if left to their own honor. Baseball is kind of the same. In theory it could operate in relative safety, but in practice is everyone going to stop spitting in the dugout and live in a tight bubble? Some coaches and players will rise to that challenge. Others won’t. And they ruin it for everyone.

Agree with your point about helping workers, but don’t want to be too warm and fuzzy on small business owners as a group. Some good ones, but I also know many (specifically restaurant owners) who are bona fide jerks and have earned their karma. In states with a lower minimum wage for tipped workers, the workers who haven’t been reporting their tips found themselves in a jam of not being eligible for much help. Sort of their own doing, but COVID has helped highlight how the restaurant industry needs top to bottom wage and benefit reform.

I feel you. I’m not sure if it’s ignorance so much as open denial but I see the same things in public here. Sadly, I usually just try to move away from the antimask types because engaging just prolongs my exposure. Newsom has been far from perfect and certainly has not come down hard enough on Orange/LA Counties or the southern Central Valley but at least he is doing something, however misguided. My governor denies COVID is a thing and has been sending state police to rough up anyone who publicly disagrees. The unfairness of the whole thing is acute. My day job and the business I own basically rely on mass gatherings and are screwed. It boils my blood that business remains great for the cops, plumbers, and truck drivers that won’t social distance while I follow all the rules and my business still takes a dump because of them. Feels like theft and makes me want to pop them in their unmasked mouth.

Assuming vaccines become widely available in the spring and the public takes them, I think fall 2021 is the earliest the university welcomes the general public back on campus. Right now UCD has compulsory testing and documentation for students and staff, which will probably be in place until community spread subsides. Those measures may be more difficult to impose on the public, which isn’t subject to employee or student discipline. In the world of optics, I don’t think UCD is as worried about currying favor with Newsom as they are about not wanting to contradict UCD Health, which is trying to position itself as a COVID leader. Agree with your point that the short term selfishness and greed by a few has only extended this situation for everyone else.

My guess is it will feel more like a PBS pledge drive with somebody in khakis and a blue button up asking for cash in front a green screen of the arboretum, only it will cutoff every 45 minutes because nobody at CAAA upgraded the Zoom account. If it helps get you in the mood, Bar Bernardo is apparently selling the Wicky Wacky Woo in 4-pack cans now.

My guess is that if UCD really wanted to circumvent Yolo County, they could. They may not have the desire to do so.

agree on introductory ARC classes. Outside of classes, I remember it as a meat market with coeds on the ellipticals making sure everyone saw their midriffs and bros on the weight racks making sure everyone heard them grunting and slamming weights, not necessarily safely. And if you had a question, the ARC staff would disappear faster than a Home Depot employee.

Are the ways in which student fees are spent locked in or are they more advisory in nature? I know with donations there is always fine print that the chancellor can reallocate to other uses without your consent if they wish (and occasionally they do).

Personally, no I don’t think PE or other “fun” classes like tractor driving impede academic progress, and I do believe they have intrinsic value as part of the university experience. What I was getting at is that US News and WSJ type rankings include elements of “cost efficiency” in their algorithms and shaving a few units here or there to possibly get a few people out in 3.75 years may manipulate that a fraction of a point. Personally, I think requiring multiple classes in chemistry, calculus, and foreign language for majors with no practical application is a much bigger waste of time than anything else.

My speculation might be that they want to get rid of classes seen as tangential to core academics so they can maybe push people out the door a quarter sooner since that plays into rankings. I also wouldn't be surprised if there was some level of lobbying from Campus Rec to transition PE to paid recreation. They did a major renovation on the ARC from 2017-19 and I might guess increasing class revenue was part of the performa.

You other point about priority registration is well taken as a campus-wide problem. There are some classes you won't be able to take until your last quarter or maybe never at all if you are not part of a "priority" group. Definitely a supply and demand mismatch for a lot of courses. For all the talk of data, I think there are still a lot of non-data points that go into course offering. Plenty of professors declare they will only teach specific quarters, at specific times, or in specific rooms. I experienced dumb things like room changes because a professor didn't like the light switches in a particular lecture hall, with little concern given that the change impacted the capacity of that and other classes.