I use this site to monitor California's real time air quality. I saw Davis went from "unhealthy for sensitive groups" to "unhealthy" this morning.

https://aqicn.org/map/california/#@g/37.7194/-121.6516/8z

Does the field look wet to you?

It's very thick and cloudy from my Spokane location. It's supposed to be mostly sunny. Is it sunny from your location? I want sun!

https://bigskyconf.com/news/2014/11/14/FB_1114145749.aspx

2014 -TIE-BREAKER
When two or more Conference members are tied in the final Conference standings, the tie shall be broken for purposes of determining the NCAA FCS automatic bid only, and shall be determined on the following basis:
1. Head-to-head Competition
2.Record against common CONFERENCE opponents in descending order
3. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents
4. Sagarin Rating
5. Coin Flip

I don't know if newer tiebreaker rules exist.

It looks like if we lose the game today, we're not likely to get the auto bid. If we win today, then we'll likely win the auto bid. I guess that seems obvious, but it's good to see the rules behind it.

The Sagarin Rating as the fourth tiebreaker is a surprise to me.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/nov/09/showdown-in-cheney-fifth-ranked-eastern-washington/

The following may be part of their game plan:

“(UC Davis) has a pretty physical secondary,” Grady said. “They’re athletic, they have guys that can move and cover, but they’re definitely beatable. I’m hoping we take more shots over the top with (Barriere’s) arm, and they have a couple guys who are susceptible to getting beat over the top.”

Here are the odds for clinching clear first in the Big Sky after tomorrow's games using Massey's game odds:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/games

Odds of UC Davis winning: 42%
Odds of Weber State losing: 10%

Odds of clinching clear first: .42 * .10 = 4.2% or about 1 in 24 chance

My view from Spokane

I'm in Spokane right now, and it's currently snowing. Game time is mostly sunny though with temperatures around 38F. I hate cold weather.

I haven't studied the Bears.

Also, as a comparison, we're now ranked higher than UCLA. :)

California is projected to beat us 30 to 23.This is a preview for next year. :)

Here's an update to the Massey rankings related to our schedule:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2018/ncaa-d1/ratings

Current - School - (Previous)

#33 Stanford (#30)
#86 UC Davis (#86)
#97 Eastern Washington (#97)
#123 Idaho State (#126)
#144 San Jose State (#137)
#145 Montana (#157)
#148 Idaho (#159)
#179 Cal Poly (#179)
#181 San Diego (#192) Up 1
#187 Northern Arizona (#184) Down 1
#201 Northern Colorado (#197)
#207 Sacramento State (#209)

It's been quite static this week. San Diego moves up one since they keep on winning against their weaker scheduled teams.

San Jose State, Montana, and Idaho appear to be similar quality of teams.

As CA Forever and CK2 have said above, UCD and Eastern Washington will be a good matchup.

Heh. I had the same thought too. I prefer ISU to win for SOS purposes since I consider Weber State and Eastern Washington as bigger threats for conference championships.

Interesting. Game tied 7-7 early in fourth.

North Dakota State ahead of Youngstown State 7-6 late in the third quarter.

I'm not sure why Ulonzo hasn't played since.

Did Ulonzo Gilliam play yet?

My guess for a sell out looks pretty bad right now.

Using Massey game odds:
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/games

Eastern Washington's chance of losing: 9%
Idaho State's chance of losing: 35%
Weber State's chance of losing: 2%
UC Davis's chance of winning: 95%

9% * 35% * 2% * 95% = 0.06% or about 1 in 1700

There's about a 1 in 1700 chance that UC Davis will clinch the Big Sky after Saturday's games.

https://m.herosports.com/fcs/football-mailbag-kennesaw-jsu-uc-davis-bzbz

Alex Bonser: Does UC Davis get seeded if they pick up a second loss, or do they have to run the table?

Brian: I think that depends on who they lose to, by how much, and what the other top teams are doing. Vague enough? Let me give you a scenario ... let's say UC Davis wins two and falls at Eastern Washington by 3 points in overtime ... I think UC Davis is likely still a 6 to 8 seed because frankly, it still doesn't have an FCS loss.

On the flip side, if UC Davis loses at home by 20 to Sacramento State in the season finale, that will be looked at differently than an overtime loss to EWU on the road. So those are the dynamics, I think.

Chase: This is an interesting question. On the one hand, UC Davis could definitely take a loss in Cheney and still have the resume of a playoff seed -- wins over Idaho State and Montana look nice, and the FBS win is better on paper than it is in reality. On the other hand, it does seem pretty unlikely that the Big Sky gets three playoff seeds.

If I'm an Aggies fan, I'm framing the Eastern Washington game as a seeding elimination game in my head, with the knowledge that Davis could probably still slip into a seeded position when it's all said and done.

Sam: It depends who the loss is to, really. If it happens against EWU and the Eagles don't suffer any losses from here on out, you'd think EWU would get a seed in front of UC Davis. And a lot would have to go wrong for Weber to drop out of the seeds. While it is possible, I don't see three Big Sky teams getting a seed.

Even with a loss to EWU, UC Davis could arguably still have a better overall resume than the Eagles. But it appears the committee really values head to head wins.

According to last game's box score, we were at capacity at 10849.

https://ucdavisaggies.com/boxscore.aspx?id=2745&path=football