Good stuff on Massey. So rare we see a favorite be this big of chalk esp in a 24 team tourney but right now we have it in FCS & FBS.

JMU @ NDSU will be must watch TV in the quarterfinals (assuming they take care of business)

If NDSU races through this bracket they will go down as one of the best FCS steaks ever. (NDSU ‘13 would be in that convo). But you never know what can happen.

Ags in the fargodome next year with a veteran Qb will be fun.

Here’s how good NDSU is relative to everyone else in FCS (I just posted this on twitter). It’s crazy that if these games were posted today they would be a DD fav in everyone. Now JMU is playing better the last two game so some of what goes into that number is their whole body of Work. Stil, that said, I make NDSU -11 over JMU in the Fargo Dome (so 8ish on a nuetral).

UCD has the fifth best odds at 20:1 (ahead of JMU
& Kenny St) driven by what side of the bracket they are on (ie NDSU isn’t in their path). For reference, UCD WAS 250:1 before the season began. (Ie no chance given) - speaking once again to the remarkable season by this team. The future is bright - and Ags get to play NDSU next year (who will lose a chunk of talent this year)

100%. I dont want to see the Ags playing the UNI-dome that is for sure. I'm worried Lamar could get steamrolled, but am hoping they can hang around for a bit.

First round of games is always interesting as you have team like Towson (strong team from an elite conference) vs Duqense (more finess team from a lower ranked conference.) I played Duquense as they have an offense capable of moving the ball most of the day and Towson D isnt anything scary. Flacco's little bro should move it at will on the Dukes however. Had to pull the trigger on the +21.5 but I expect Towson wins the game by 14-17

JMU -16.5. They should hammer Delly who limps into the playoffs after dropping two straight games including getting worked at home by Nova last week. Meanwhile, JMU seems to have figured out their offensive problems - much stronger last two weeks. DiNucci finding a rhythm again. I expect them to lay the wood.

I want to like IW - i think they are actually a very comparable team to Montana St but its hard for me to get excited to back these Texas boys in what is forecast to be 29 and snowy on Saturday. Instead, I settled for Under 66.5.

Jax St should hammer ETSU who is a fraud.

I'm really interested in USD/Nicholls. USD has lost to a Big Sky team by DD in each of the last 3 years. Actually lost quite handily (twice to UCD) then came back and beat a BigSky team in the playoffs the last two years. In 2016, they lost to Cal Poly early then beat them. LY lost to UCD then hammered NAU in the most shocking result of the playoffs IMO. They arent nearly as good a Nicholls but they have a veteran team and a good offense. If they can move it on Nicholls, they can hang around. Likely the reason they drew early support and the line moved from 19 to 15.

Elon get Wofford and for the 2nd time in as many year opens with an option team. LY lost by 1 to Furman. These teams are pretty equal. Elon backup QB who look below avg vs RI/Towson but bounced back nicely against a very good Maine D last weekend.

Lamar is getting a lot of points and if i had to bet this game i would take LAMAR as i think they are being undervalued. That said, when i start to consider some of the other factors: first ever playoff game, on the road in the dome, noise, and UNI's ability to impose their will up front - I held off. I really hope Lamar can give them a good game. They surprised all year long, would be fun to see one more.

Stony Brook/SEMO I have less of a feel for....

Opening lines.
JMU opened -16.5 I bet that and it’s now up to -20
UNI -27.5 opener
Nicolls opened at -19 (its been bet down to 15 as of the moment)

It’s an immature market so lines move fast. Nicholls will close above 17

Haha back when i was covering many of these teams - Fans, SID's, media - would all screw it up. The favorite was always "Cal Davis" but i saw some weird ones.

RIveraggie hits on the most important point imo. The difference between UNI and every other team on UCD’s schedule will be trench play. They are a typical MVFC team. Big, Strong, and Physical along the lines. AGS will have way more talent than them at the QB/skill spots bit it’s going to come down to trench play. If UCD holds their own they’ll beat them. If they have issues like against EWU gonna be a bigger challenge. There will be so much to talk about as It relates to the game but that is the best/easiest way to simplify it.

MVFC is the best confernce in FCS loaded with team with similar profiles as UNI. The panthers have played a loaded schedule and some of their stats are a results of playing some of the best offenses in the land: NDSU, SDSU, Illy St, USD (plus game vs Iowa).

Maybe Lamar surprises us and gives them a game but I don’t see it.

I’ll post the spreads here later when they drop. I think you’ll be very surprised. If they open the lines you mentioned above they can have all my money on all three favs. That would be way too low. In no world is Nicholls only a 7 Point fav over USD on a nuetral.

Great video.

can tell you with 100% certainty that if the line we’re set today UCD would be a pick em to 1 point underdog pending how much value you assign home field! Trust me. I bet FCS religiously.

Don’t believe me check sagarin which is great way to assign a power rating and determine where 5 dimes will open the game (if it were tomorrow). Again this Is where the line would open. I would expect there to be action on the Aggies and they wound be a favorite by kickoff.

Sagarin:
UNI - 64.42
UCD - 60.64

This says on a neutral field UNI would be a 4 Point favorite. If you assign the typical 3 points for HFA that would make UCD as 1 point dog. Could argue it opens at a pick em but you get my point.

Tomorrow UNI Will open at 26-27 point favorite over LAMAR

These ratings will adjust based on what happens with UNI. if they go out and win by 10 points the rating may shift and UCD opens as a small favorite.

UNI has a ton of respect playing in the best confernce in FCS & having played the toughest schedule in FCS.

Other lines I expect to see tomorrow:
JMU will open around an 18 pt fav over Delly
Montana St about a 12-13 pt fav over IW
Nicholls about an 18 pt fav over USD (former Ags opponent)

I saw this potentially coming a few weeks back and knew if they got seed/bye I was out of luck. Lots of friends will be there and I’ll be streaming somewhere. The atmosphere shouid be amazing and I’m bummed to miss that scene.

Lamar gonna be like a 27 Point underdog at UNI if that give you a feel for the matchup. Lamar playing better than that current rating IMO so that might be a little heavy but I’m not yet lining up to back them either: first ever playoff game, in a dome (will be very loud) vs a very physical team. IMO, these conferences don’t match up well. Don’t be fooled by records. Panthers shouid eat here.

SOS is a huge advantage for UNI. They have been tested all year.
UNI #1
Lamar #71
(UCD is 15)

FWIW, Lamar lost their starting QB a few wks back vs SHSU and turned to back up (Hoy). The starter (Colbert) was available two weeks ago but Hoy still started. Both QB’s played. Yesterday Colbert was back to starting but Hoy took two series before the half. Seems like they are shifting back to Colbert but we’ll see come Saturday. Lamar started 0-3 or 0-4 I think they hit their bye and clearly figured things out. Never looked back and reeled off 6 straight wins. Impressive considering they we’re underdogs in all of them by 2 I think.

UNI lost 4 of their 5 games on the road. Their only Home Loss was to NDSU which was a great game. Final scote not indicative of the flow. I watched most of that game and it was a 1 score game into the fourth. UNI was leading At that point. They also had an impressive home win against SDSU. They were less impressive on the road. Big split in performance Home va road (will try to dive into this a little later to see what I can uncover)

Common opponent: Montana. Ags best them up there, UNI lost by 3. That was first game of the season though so much has changed. I’m speaking as of its UNI that the Ags will face bc it would be a major upset if it wasn’t tbh.

Just a few things to chew for now.

Sadly , I’m in New York that week (trip planned for months so I’m gonna to miss that game and it’s eating at me already)

Yup EWU would be a potential rematch.

UNI will smoke Lamar, when they come to UCD They will be a 1 Point fav (if game was played this week). Every other team would be an underdog at UCD on the Ags side of the bracket. Just info so there is some relativity in how teams stack up.

The rest helps. Get healthy. Hit the film room and be ready for the (new) biggest game in Aggie history in 17 years. :)

As someone who has a good feel on the landscape on FCS, I’d rather face anyone else on the Ags side of the bracket except UNI from that first round group. I think they will beat Lamar. They are a tough physical team, defense will remind you of the EWU group. OL gonna need to be ready. That said UNI downfall was their performance on the road this year. UCD needs to sell the place out and make it a big advantage.

hmm not sure.

Oh boy. UNI would be a beast to play in round two.

Kenny V Wofford,
Option vs option potential second round.

Colgate gets a seed then will get to host JMU on second round. Yikes.

IW gets in prob means no Lamar, bummer. The two had such a great run going.

No JMU!