Montana St @ NDSU: I watched nearly all of the MSU/Lamar game last week. If Lamar has their stuf Frosh QB that game goes to the wire. Talent wise they were equal, its just that Lamar had to throw out the bacjup QB, on the road, in the playoffs, in the cold and he was just avg. Their RB also got hurt to start the 2nd half. MSU has made the most out of a bad situation losing their starting QB mid summer and turning to star RB Troy Anderson. It's a run first offense with Anderson doing a lot of the running, very effectively. He has thrown the ball decently and actually threw a couple beautiful deep balls last weekend for big gains. But MSU doesnt have the horses to keep up here. They played SDSU on the road early in the year and got smacked 45-14. This wont be any different, Bison Roll by 31. (No need to talk about NDSU here, will be plenty of time n the coming week.

SEMO @ Weber St: Welcome to this weeks segment of "how did they win that game?". I thought Stony Brook would beat SEMO last week. They are the better team IMO. And for the most part they were the better team last week too despite losing 28-14. They outdid SEMO in almost every aspect of the boxscore including out-gaining them 404-240!!!!!!!! Stony Brook actually led 14-0 and should have cruised to a win. But the 2H happened as did FOUR turnovers. Here's the drives in the 3Q: Int, TD, Int TD, Punt TD. And the drives consisted of 24, 38, and 40 yards! Wow. Gifted this game because of two fumbles and two picks. Short field and quick scores flipped this game and SB is home this weekend. for their effort, the Redhawks earned a trip to Weber. I wasnt a huge beleiver in this team entering the playoffs and nothing has changed. Now they play on the road against a significantly better, rested defense and i expect Weber to be workmanlike in their approach this weekend. Ride Josh Davis alot. Throw it when they need to. Rely on their great D/ST to set up great field position and cruise to a DD win. 'Cats by 13.

From what I know only one coach has stayed on to coach throughout the entirety of the playoffs: Bohl (NDSU) when going for the 3 peat. Chances are Houston is gone which is a huge blow to JMU and then how many JMU coaches will he take with him?

This could be messy.

What a blow to JMU. Sure, he may finish out this playoff run but it's not entirely for sure given the recruiting period for Charlotte. Has to be disruptive to the locker room. FWIW, Charlotte is a D1 program but JMU would be favored over them if the two teams played.

Wofford @ Kenny St: option v option. Kenny St but did face scrutiny for their soft schedule (ie how good are they?) almost all year. I watched almost the entire game against FCS Georgia St and they were the better team and gave it away. I knew from the get go this team was for real. Proved it against Jax St in the OT thrilled to close the season. Chandler Bruks at QB is fun to watch, runs the option to precision and can throw it a little too. Their D (ranked #3 nationally) has been lught out all season (including GSU) but did se Jax St exploit them to the tune of over 500 yards. Wofford is just a consistently strong FCS program. They got a nice break last week facing an banged up Elon team. I expected more from Elon but their QB play (or lack therof) ultimately did them in.... I don't think this game is very tricky. As it stands Kenny St is a 7.5 fav and i think they are the clear better team. Would not surprise me if its tied or Kenny is losing a close one at half but ultimately think they win this one by 10.

Duquense @ SDSU: These teams actually met last year in Brookings to open the season and the Jacks won 51-13. SDSU/EWU are vying for the 2nd best team in the country IMO. Their QB Taryn Christon is a stud. He makes this whole thing go and there was concerns after losing NFL TE (Goedert) and a WR (Weineke) that had a cup of coffee with the Vikings. But they reloaded at the skill spots and with their gunslinger (mobile) havent missed a beat. Duqense on the other hand pulled off the biggest upset of round 1 beating the CAA's best offensive team in Towson as 18 points underdogs. Now a couple things to note here:
1. The game was played in a torrential downpour (weather, the great equalizer)
2. That said, Towson led 10-0, missed a FG and then FUMBLED on the Duq 1 yard line. Yup, that game was literally inches from being 20-0 early 2nd quarter. That happens and Duq has to start going to air, isnt able to run the ball all game as much, changes the gameplan and they probably get blown out. But they made the play when they had to and rode their star RB to a win. Crazy how games can shift as Towson was in complete control the first 20 mins. They wont be as forunate this week. They may get some snow but they are also going to get a way more complete team, who is rested. Duqense will be lucky to run for 100 yards this week and might find a little success passing it but just have the horses to keep up with this SDSU group. Duqense is a little better than last year so the differential might not be 38 but i like the Jacks by 30.

EWU lost their all conference Safety to injury during PSU game and he is out for the year. He’s a stud and was third in tackles in game vs the Ags. Tough blow.

They have a playmaking DE and their Kicker also questionable this weekend.

Ok, some thoughts on round 2 (in order of start time)....

Jax St @ Maine: Interesting game. Jax St is generally a national power in FCS and has been the last few years. However, with the exception of 2015 they have flamed out hard. In 3 of the last 4 years they entered the playoffs as a seed and lost their first game at home. The other year they went to the title game and lost a great game vs NDSU. Zerrick Cooper is their QB (Clemson xfer) and brings some athleticism to the position. But he'll make mistakes, 2:1 interception ratio. He's helped give the offense some life as in prior years it was an unreal D but struggling offense esp come playoff time. Now they are a little more balanced and hes driving it. From a pure talent standpoint, Jax has an advantage here but this Maine group is tough and scrappy. They were picked to finish at the bottom of the CAA, then won it. They play great D. Really strong against the run which should help as they contain the ground game of both the RB's and QB. Stuff the run, put it in Cooper's hands and force him into mistakes if you can. Both team play great defense (top 15 statistically), Jax St has the advantage on offense IMO. Ferguson is a solid QB for Maine and has battled injuries all year. He left the reg season finale but is expected back this week. Maine sint going to blow you away on offense but they find ways. I think they can generate enough on offense, create some turnovers, and find a way to slip past Jax st by 4.

JMU @ Colgate: This game could easily end up 9-6 and it would surprise no one. Similar to the Maine/Jax St game, two more really good defenses. Colgate is the best defense in the nation statistically but we have to take their SOS into account. They were crazy dominant with 5 or 6 shutouts but me, AggieFinn, and EastBay Aggie could have made a few plays against some of the teams they were playing. They showed their merit holding a 9-2 Army to under 280 yards of offense and trailed by 7 until the final 2 mins of the game. Their D is no joke. JMU ranks 7th in the nation in defense w/ 38th SOS (this number surprised me). Both teams will take away the run, allowing 3ypc or less. The question that has to be answered is what offense will have success on Saturday? Most people will say JMU given their history and "brand” but they just haven’t had the same explosiveness and it’s clear they are missing QB Schor (graduated LY). I think Colgate can really limit JMU but i also am concerned about how Colgate does much against the Dukes D. Thus, the reason the total was set at 38 and even at that low number I still bet under. Dont see either team getting to 21+ barring turnover, D/ST TD's. Il be surprised if anyone from the media doesn’t pick JMU but i like the upset here. I believe what my eyes tell me and this JMU team isn't nearly as good as expected (and deserving of the non-seed) yet there is still a belief this team is top 5 caliber. They arent and their offensive issues are going to be their demise. This is a coin flip game and I'll take the rested teams playing at home by a FG.

More later....

haha. “Far” not fat. Would have been cool if within an hour to get over there for a half. Not to be.
Will try to get some thoughts on all the week 2
Games once I get out from the work I’m buried under.

I just looked up how fat Colgate was from Manhattan - tempted to see if I could get over there for an hour or two Saturday. Too far away. 3.5 hours.

I was there during the Capt Aggie days. Indiana Aggie. Chico the burrito Bomber. Woodstocks pizza into the stands. Launching Chico's burritos into the stands. Chants like "whose SOCKS are these?" (as someone holds up a pair of socks. In unison, SAC ST SOCKS. Fans were always there at those games. BUT they were used to winning. During my 4.5 years no Aggie team lost more than 4 games, went to the playoffs every year, and were led by the following QB's:

Mark Greib (10+ years in Arena league)
Kevin Daft (drafted 5th roudn of NFL)
JTO (drafted 5th round of NFL, 10 year career)

There was a culture of winning. Hawk is bringing that back and the fans will follow. If you build it, they will come. Everything is pointing in the right direction.

Well said Riveraggie

I’ve tried to find injury info and can’t So not sure who is out or might return. UCD getting a week off this late in the season has to do wonders for all the guys who are a little knicked up.

I think their size comes from their OL which is pretty big. You mentioned the DL being more normal sized on previous post as well.

Definitely a contrast in styles, should be fun to see the game plan and how it adjusts based on the looks the Panthers show early. Hoping it doesn’t rain and nuetralize some of the explosive UCD O.

donated yesterday!

UCD opened -2.5 vs Nicholls. Lines out early this week. I hit that and someone else clearly did as well. It’s now up to -6.

Will be interesting to see how that neutralizes the EWU offense if at all. They can run it so well and now with Barriere just another dimension at QB. Two years ago, they played the semi-final game @ Cheney vs YSU in awful snowy weather. EWU was favored by 7, lost by 2. But they put up 38 points and threw for a ton of yards (Cooper Kupp team). This is going to be a really interesting matchup. I don't think Nicholls can beat EWU but they are a pretty talented group that present some challenges.

Nicholls:
-Very balanced, run v pass
-Fourcade is a mobile Qb and they love to use him with direct runs and RPO's. He throws it well and is playing the best football of his career the last few games. Against a talented DL like EWU, a mobile QB is a certainly a help.
-Beat Kansas in first game of year. FBS win is an FBS win.
- Top 25 in defense/YPP
- Great with "Havoc" - 6th nationally in tackles for loss with over 8 per game, 5th nationally in sacks at over 3 per game.

I believe EWU is the 2nd best team in the nation. But this will be an interesting game to watch to see if Nicholls can test this group at home and if the weather plays any factor on either side.

Projected Round 2 Spreads:

JMU -4 @ Colgate
Montana State @ NDSU -32
Jax St -3.5 @ Maine
Wofford @ Kennesaw St -12
Duquense @ South Dakota St -35
SE Mizz St @ Weber St -11
Nicholls St @ EWU -17
UNI @ UC Davis -1.5

EWU should neat Nicholls, handily. Right now weather calls for snow on Saturday in Cheney.

it’s a totally fair point and I agree to an extent. Davis also hasn’t faced teams like this on the regular out of the MVFC. UNI’s stats may compare to NAU Or Idaho on a YPP Basis but their schedule is tougher (#1 SOS in FCS vs #15/#35) and they offer a different sort of challenge. Beating SDSU was no fluke, they gave NDSU all they could handle as well. (Panthers have also been pretty pedestrian away from the dome, which is important). If the Ags can just limit the running game (not even saying fully stop it) i don’t see how UNI can keep up.

I think UCD wins this game (there’s a lot to like about the situation and matchup) but I also think their could be some struggles early and it may take some adjusting before the Ags take over. I hope
I’m wrong. I am a lot. I would love a stress free blowout by 20+!!

Ok lets get the chatter started...I’ll keep it simple. Two keys:

1. Stop the run (Easier said than done against that monster OL). UNI is gonna be committed to the run, they want to come in and play power football and impose their will on the Ags. (Also this helps to controls TOP keeping ball away from the UCD offense). If the Ags can avoid getting gashed & Force UNI to throw it they’ll be in good shape in getting stops.

2. There isn’t a team that can stop the Davis offense, IF the OL gives JM time to make his reads and deliver the ball. Things fell apart in Cheney
because EWU beat the Ags up front over and over putting pressure on Maier all game Long forcing quick throws/mistakes. Encouraging that Lamar put up 417 yards but their QB’s mobility led to quite a few of those yards keeping plays alive. Jake’s a pocket passer and needs a touch of time to get through his progressions. Does UNI have the defensive line/defensive schemes/blitzes to cause the Ags problems? I’m not sure.

I’m pretty confident in this team and their ability but every game now is a step up in competition and situation. We’re gonna learn a lot and it’s helpful this game is at home in front of what better be a sold out crowd. The type of teams that are going to cause UCD problems are ones that are physical up front and can dominate in the trenches. When you look at UNI they certainly have some of that and when you consider their ceiling is beating a team like SDSU & leading NDSU into the fourth that grabs your attention.

Home. Rested. Hopefully healthy. Coaches I’m sure started Game planning for UNI last week already. Panthers less rested, likely less healthy, etc. Lots to like before you even begin to break down matchups.

I expect game may have a different feel to start. (Offense slow to start?) UCD doesn’t see these type teams all that much but I think the experience in Cheney will benefit them here. Once they get rolling and find rhythm theyll pull away.

UCD by 13
(I reserve the right to change this if it rains)

I missed on a lot of the games which is what makes the playoffs so fun.

-I bet Duquesne +21.5 But never figured they could win the game.
-Wish we could have seen Copeland for IW, that’s a completely different game if he could play today. Montana St offense has no shot vs NDSU. It’s QB run right, qb run left with an occuasiinal shot down the field. They’ve made the best out of their situation, losing their starting QB just before season started and plugging in a converted WR.
-Nicholls/USD played out as expected
-JMU too BUT their offense was again a little lacking. Give Delly some credit their D pretty good.
-felt like Elon/Wofford was a toss up so result didn’t surprise me.

Of the record 6 CAA team that made the playoffs (of which such a big deal was made) 4 of them were eliminated today. Maine had a bye and JMU/Delly were both CAA team. Truly unmoressive day for what most people believe is 2nd best conference in FCS behind MVFC.

Just got home from dinner with the family in time to catch fourth qtr of Jax st ETSU. Jax St taking over.

I only caught about 1/3 of UNI Game. Any thoughts?

Given the performance today the Panthers PR’s will decline a little which should I mean UCD will open as slight favs on Saturday. My guess is -3 ish.

Gonna be UNI. GAME ON.